Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:53:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7f89…8819 weather 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$70 (+2%) realized +$74 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate89%32W / 4L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 58% +$115
sports 41% −$35
other 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% -9.4%
≤30d 2 -8.2% -16.9% 50% 50% -9.4%
≤90d 27 -0.4% -9.9% 85% 22% -9.6%
all 36 +0.5% -9.0% 89% 17% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 17% -7.3%
10% -17.7% 6% -16.2%
15% -25.7% 3% -24.3%
20% -33.0% 0% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$39 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)89%
Wins / losses32 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage149d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? No 88¢ 81¢ $50 $46 −$4 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? Jun 24 $51 −$17 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $101 +$17 +17%
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 24? May 25 $40 +$6 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $45 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? May 23 $36 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14? Apr 14 $69 −$24 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13? Apr 14 $66 +$3 +5%
Rainbow FDV above $70M one day after launch? Apr 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Clippers vs. Rockets Apr 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 13? Apr 13 $63 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10? Apr 10 $76 +$36 +48%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 8? Apr 09 $71 +$6 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 8? Apr 08 $61 +$10 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? Apr 07 $57 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 7? Apr 07 $51 +$5 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6? Apr 07 $40 +$11 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 4? Apr 04 $54 +$9 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 1? Apr 03 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? Mar 30 $58 +$5 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 30? Mar 30 $56 +$3 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on March 29? Mar 30 $53 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on March 28? Mar 28 $67 +$7 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on March 28? Mar 28 $63 +$5 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 28? Mar 28 $59 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on March 27? Mar 27 $57 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 27? Mar 27 $53 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 9°C on March 26? Mar 26 $50 +$4 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 22? Mar 22 $48 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on March 21? Mar 21 $48 +$1 +2%
Wizards vs. Heat Mar 21 $47 +$1 +2%
Mavericks vs. Hornets Mar 11 $45 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on February 27? Feb 28 $43 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 4°C on February 18? Feb 27 $12 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C or higher on February 1 Feb 17 $12 +$1 +7%
Hawks vs. Hornets Feb 12 $1,000 +$63 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 2°C on February 11? Feb 12 $11 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? SELL No 52¢ $34 54m
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 24? SELL No 100¢ $118 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 24? BUY No 75¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 24? BUY No 88¢ $50 2h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 82¢ $50 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 24? BUY No 87¢ $40 30d
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 23? BUY No 92¢ $45 31d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? BUY No 94¢ $36 49d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14? SELL No 58¢ $45 71d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 14? BUY No 89¢ $69 71d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 71d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $66 72d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 13? SELL No 100¢ $66 72d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on April 13? BUY No 95¢ $63 72d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10? SELL No 100¢ $112 74d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10? BUY No 68¢ $39 75d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on April 10? BUY No 65¢ $37 75d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on April 8? BUY No 92¢ $71 76d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 8? SELL No 100¢ $71 77d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on April 8? BUY No 85¢ $61 77d
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on April 7? BUY No 93¢ $57 77d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 7? SELL No 100¢ $56 78d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on April 7? BUY No 90¢ $51 78d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 20°C or higher on April 6? BUY No 77¢ $40 79d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 4? SELL No 100¢ $63 81d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 4? BUY No 84¢ $54 81d
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on April 1? BUY No 97¢ $52 84d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? SELL No 100¢ $63 85d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on March 30? BUY No 92¢ $58 85d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.02 · official $46.02 (match) · 75 history records