Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:24:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f84…b4c4 crypto 155 markets active 0h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%62W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$39
14 days+$80
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$67
crypto 20% −$51
other 11% +$79
finance 9% +$19
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +66.3% +50.4% 78% 67% +31.2%
≤30d 48 +14.9% +3.9% 56% 54% +8.8%
≤90d 113 -13.8% -22.0% 40% 33% -17.6%
all 153 +3.2% -6.6% 41% 35% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 35% -10.2%
10% -15.6% 30% -18.8%
15% -23.7% 27% -26.6%
20% -31.2% 24% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.39 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses62 / 91
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)153 / 155
History coverage118d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 153 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? Up 11¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 22 2026? Yes 25¢ 62¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+146%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of June 22 2026? Jun 23 $31 +$3 +11%
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? Jun 22 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? Jun 21 $3 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +76%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$15 +287%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 17 $5 +$11 +213%
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $21 +$6 +28%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 15 $28 +$3 +12%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $52 −$4 -7%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $33 −$2 -5%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $30 −$5 -17%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $20 −$1 -4%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,100 in June? Jun 10 $47 +$7 +16%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $22 +$27 +123%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 10 $12 +$11 +90%
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $65 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $8 +$4 +51%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 8? Jun 07 $5 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3AM ET Jun 04 $1 $0 -19%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $2 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10AM ET May 30 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9AM ET May 30 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -85%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 29? May 29 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 29 $2 +$1 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 29 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in May? May 29 $1 $0 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2AM ET May 29 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 29 $2 −$1 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 25-31? May 29 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 28 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7AM ET May 28 $1 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 28 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5AM ET May 28 $2 $0 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 28 $1 −$1 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET May 27 $1 $0 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7AM ET May 27 $1 +$1 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 27 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6AM ET May 26 $1 $0 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4AM ET May 26 $0 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET May 26 $1 +$1 +52%
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on May 7? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 07 $1 $0 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? SELL Up 7¢ $0 7m
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $60 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $0 11m
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of June 22 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $35 32m
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $62 Week of June 22 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $31 1h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 23? BUY Up 11¢ $2 3h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 37¢ $5 17h
Silver (XAGUSD) Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 34¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? SELL Down 52¢ $6 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 22? BUY Down 42¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? SELL Down 25¢ $2 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 21? BUY Down 26¢ $3 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 20¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 11¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 11¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? SELL Down 30¢ $6 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 20? BUY Down 16¢ $3 3d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $20 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,150 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $13 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $1 5d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 5d
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 88¢ $4 5d
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 88¢ $18 5d
Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $72 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 5d
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 82¢ $5 5d
Will Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 67¢ $21 6d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $31 7d
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,350 Week of June 15 2026? BUY Yes 88¢ $28 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.03 · official $2.03 (match) · 431 history records