Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:30:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f83…f7e9 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 557d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL −$10 (-1%) realized −$8 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate51%33W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$7
other 32% −$7
sports 10% −$2
politics 7% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +43.9% +30.2% 53% 53% -21.3%
≤30d 17 +43.9% +30.2% 53% 53% -21.3%
≤90d 17 +43.9% +30.2% 53% 53% -21.3%
all 65 +13.5% +2.7% 51% 29% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 29% -10.4%
10% -7.1% 28% -19.0%
15% -16.1% 26% -26.8%
20% -24.3% 23% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

557d coverage
Net worth$13
Realized−$8
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses33 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)65 / 73
History coverage557d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 44¢ 31¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-30%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 32¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+17%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners Over 55¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 78¢ 62¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-20%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners Over 63¢ 50¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Over 57¢ 36¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-38%)
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Yes 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$5 +249%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $2 +$1 +62%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 +$2 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $5 +$3 +67%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$3 +68%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 $0 -10%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SOL flip ETH in 2025? Jul 16 $10 +$1 +6%
Tether insolvent in 2025? Jul 16 $10 $0 +3%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 10 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-04-12? Apr 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana above $125 on April 11? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Japanese Grand Prix? Apr 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $90k first? Apr 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2025 Indian Wells Open? Mar 28 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lando Norris win the 2025 Australian Grand Prix? Mar 28 $5 +$10 +203%
Will West Ham vs. Newcastle end in a draw? Mar 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brentford win on 2025-03-08? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Manchester City end in a draw? Mar 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-08? Mar 09 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Brighton win on 2025-03-08? Mar 09 $5 +$5 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Mar 7? Mar 08 $5 +$37 +733%
Solana above $145 on March 7? Mar 08 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-03-05? Mar 06 $5 +$9 +178%
Solana all time high by March 31? Mar 02 $4 +$5 +136%
Will Kanye launch a coin in February? Mar 02 $30 +$8 +28%
Solana above $175 on February 28? Mar 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin hit $90k or $100k first? Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ethereum hit $2,500 or $3,000 first? Feb 25 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin above $97,000 on February 21? Feb 22 $10 +$8 +82%
Will Liverpool win on 2024-12-07? Feb 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Carabao Cup Semifinal: Tottenham vs. Liverpool (To Advance) Feb 15 $20 +$11 +54%
Solana above $225 on December 20? Jan 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $250k in 2024? Jan 09 $93 +$1 +1%
Pudgy Penguins airdrop in 2024? Dec 16 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Biden pardon SBF? Dec 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will Biden finish his term? Dec 16 $30 $0 -1%
Solana above $240 on December 13? Dec 13 $51 +$4 +8%
Will Trump Media acquire a crypto exchange in 2024? Dec 13 $30 −$1 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 63¢ $2 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 55¢ $2 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 2nd Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $2 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 57¢ $2 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 44¢ $5 4h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $8 4h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 2nd Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $2 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $2 5h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 71¢ $5 5h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $9 5h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $1 6h
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 58¢ $5 6h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 7h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 94¢ $11 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 40h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 40h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 40h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 40h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 40h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.01 · official $13.01 (match) · 145 history records