Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T10:01:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7f82…91e5 crypto 311 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$209 (+5%) realized +$230 · open −$21
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate42%130W / 179L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day7.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days+$19
14 days+$19
30 days−$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$231
sports 31% +$27
other 11% −$108
politics 1% −$3
world 0% $0
economics 0% −$1
finance 0% −$10
tech 0% −$6
weather 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +17.3% +6.2% 67% 47% -5.4%
≤30d 33 -12.8% -21.1% 52% 42% -16.6%
≤90d 309 -6.1% -15.1% 42% 36% -7.0%
all 309 -6.1% -15.1% 42% 36% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.1% 36% -7.0%
10% -23.2% 30% -15.9%
15% -30.6% 26% -24.1%
20% -37.4% 21% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$8 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$230
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses130 / 179
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)309 / 311
History coverage82d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.8
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $55 $54 −$1 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Up 55¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$10 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $19 +$39 +206%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $41 +$57 +140%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 +$7 +14%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$1 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$10 -50%
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? Jun 15 $42 −$41 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $10 +$4 +42%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 +$7 +37%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 15 $10 +$7 +73%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $19 +$1 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $59 −$58 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 23 $11 −$11 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs LNG Esports (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 23 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET May 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -96%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: Both Teams to Score May 22 $10 +$8 +86%
FC Machida Zelvia vs. Urawa Red Diamonds: O/U 3.5 May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Ilya Ivashka vs Hamish Stewart May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC end in a draw? May 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 5.5 May 21 $10 +$5 +54%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 May 21 $10 +$1 +11%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 2.5 May 21 $19 +$4 +18%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: O/U 1.5 May 21 $10 +$4 +40%
Brøndby IF vs. FC København: Both Teams to Score May 21 $10 +$9 +89%
AFC Ajax vs. FC Groningen: O/U 3.5 May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC København win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
ITF Pelham: Amelia Honer vs Hibah Shaikh May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Groningen win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 +$10 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 10 $18 −$17 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 10 $13 +$3 +23%
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 +$5 +52%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $8 −$8 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 May 09 $20 +$19 +97%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 09 $10 +$2 +23%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 212.5 May 09 $59 −$29 -49%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 211.5 May 09 $39 +$7 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 09 $19 −$19 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 May 09 $20 −$19 -98%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 3.5 May 09 $10 +$17 +172%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 09 $10 +$2 +22%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 May 09 $20 −$19 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $56 12h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $56 12h
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 32¢ $19 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 49¢ $9 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL No 27¢ $10 13h
Uruguay to score first vs. Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 71¢ $42 13h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $41 13h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 SELL Under 63¢ $14 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $27 14h
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL No 100¢ $17 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $21 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY No 52¢ $10 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 14h
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $10 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $10 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 73¢ $10 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $10 14h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 34¢ $10 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.08 · official $54.08 (match) · 885 history records