Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T06:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f7d…06e3 sports 280 markets active 0h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$213 (-7%) realized −$208 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate74%204W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day14.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$151
14 days−$73
30 days−$186
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 66% −$175
sports 27% −$41
world 6% $0
other 2% −$37
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -2.9% -12.1% 72% 47% -31.1%
≤30d 227 +3.8% -6.1% 78% 56% -17.9%
≤90d 277 +1.2% -8.4% 74% 54% -16.9%
all 277 +1.2% -8.4% 74% 54% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.4% 54% -16.9%
10% -17.2% 35% -24.9%
15% -25.2% 26% -32.1%
20% -32.5% 16% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$208
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses204 / 73
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)277 / 280
History coverage41d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day14.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Roar Gaming 76¢ 68¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner Roar Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+65%)
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Roar Gaming 65¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3 $0 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $2 +$1 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +31%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri Jun 15 $8 +$5 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $35 +$16 +45%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 +$3 +78%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $6 +$1 +9%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +65%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +79%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 $0 +23%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $2 +$1 +42%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $7 +$3 +43%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $2 +$1 +57%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $3 $0 +7%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $6 $0 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $3 $0 +4%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $2 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $3 +$1 +42%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $3 +$1 +36%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $42 −$42 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $53 −$53 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $49 −$41 -82%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2 +$1 +32%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $3 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 +$2 +101%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $4 +$4 +93%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $2 +$4 +158%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 63¢ $3 6m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 64¢ $2 6m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 62¢ $3 9m
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 85¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 82¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 2 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 65¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 84¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 83¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 85¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 84¢ $4 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Roar Gaming 84¢ $1 1h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 61¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising - Game 1 Winner BUY Roar Gaming 60¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 59¢ $7 13h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 59¢ $2 13h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 55¢ $4 14h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 56¢ $4 15h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY FUT Esports 69¢ $2 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 16h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $3 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $2 16h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $3 16h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 56¢ $2 16h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $27 17h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $10 18h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY TheMongolz 55¢ $8 18h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Grey Trac - Game 2 Winner BUY Vici Gaming 87¢ $5 18h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 56¢ $3 19h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors 56¢ $2 19h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Top Esports Challenger 81¢ $2 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.54 · official $29.54 (match) · 821 history records