Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T18:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7F 0x7f7d…2304 crypto 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,025 (+22%) realized +$2,025 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,046per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,025
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +28.1% +15.9% 44% 44% +21.8%
≤30d 9 +28.1% +15.9% 44% 44% +21.8%
≤90d 9 +28.1% +15.9% 44% 44% +21.8%
all 9 +28.1% +15.9% 44% 44% +21.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.9% 44% +21.8%
10% +4.8% 33% +10.1%
15% ← realistic here -5.3% 33% -0.5%
20% -14.6% 22% -10.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +35% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$566 vs −$237 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.53 per $1 lost it wins $9.53
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,025
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)9 / 9
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1,046
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 9 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 22 $1,530 +$764 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $1,732 +$1,007 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 22 $1,545 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 22 $1,189 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 22 $2,331 +$463 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 22 $799 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 22 $41 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 22 $13 +$28 +225%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 22 $237 −$237 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $503 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $512 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $515 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $193 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $511 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $513 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $515 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $515 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $516 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $514 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $461 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $199 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $198 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $198 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $197 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $196 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $202 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2,794 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $195 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $196 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $197 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $193 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $193 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $193 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $193 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $193 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $194 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $194 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $194 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $195 27m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records