Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f74…475d sports 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$578 (-50%) realized −$410 · open −$168
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%7W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$73per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$37
7 days−$400
14 days−$400
30 days−$400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 85% −$604
sports 14% +$37
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +3.4% -6.5% 47% 47% -48.1%
≤30d 15 +3.4% -6.5% 47% 47% -48.1%
≤90d 15 +3.4% -6.5% 47% 47% -48.1%
all 15 +3.4% -6.5% 47% 47% -48.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 47% -48.1%
10% -15.4% 47% -53.0%
15% -23.6% 47% -57.6%
20% -31.1% 47% -61.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +31% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$67 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$410
Unrealized−$168
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses7 / 8
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage9d
Avg bet$73
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 13¢ 2¢ $190 $22 −$168 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 +$26 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $20 +$24 +118%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $18 +$10 +55%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 +$4 +70%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 +$5 +95%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $20 −$15 -74%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$1 -19%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $25 −$25 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $37 +$19 +51%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 11 $16 −$13 -85%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $696 −$465 -67%
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election Jun 10 $36 +$45 +126%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 18m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $25 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $44 3h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 5h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $28 7h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $18 7h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $9 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $10 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $5 9h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 12¢ $5 10h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 13¢ $4 10h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $20 10h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $5 11h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 13h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 13h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 24h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $56 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $37 28h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $5 29h
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 1¢ $2 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election SELL Yes 3¢ $16 6d
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $16 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $16 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 6¢ $49 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 4¢ $4 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL Yes 4¢ $10 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 12¢ $42 6d
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election BUY Yes 12¢ $33 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.15 · official $22.15 (match) · 44 history records