Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T07:12:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7F 0x7f71…7cf9 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$13 (+5%) realized +$14 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR88%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$109now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$11
14 days+$12
30 days+$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$21
crypto 5% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +88%
net ROI/market (all)-4.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.1% -6.7% 86% 86% -1.4%
≤30d 8 +5.6% -4.4% 88% 88% -1.3%
≤90d 8 +5.6% -4.4% 88% 88% -1.3%
all 8 +5.6% -4.4% 88% 88% -1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.4% 88% -1.3%
10% -13.6% 25% -10.8%
15% -21.9% 12% -19.4%
20% -29.6% 0% -27.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$10 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.17 per $1 lost it wins $2.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$109
Realized+$14
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage19d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $51 +$7 +15%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $41 +$8 +19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1 $0 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 87¢ $30 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $41 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 73¢ $41 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $51 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 83¢ $41 27h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 85¢ $10 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 73¢ $1 12d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 55¢ $1 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $109.28 · official $109.28 (match) · 18 history records