Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:13:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f6f…5284 sports 68 markets active 2h ago coverage 120d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$140 (-2%) realized −$160 · open +$20
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate63%41W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$82per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$230now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$45
14 days−$219
30 days−$235
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% −$249
other 13% +$108
world 1% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +67.4% +51.5% 100% 100% +51.5%
≤30d 22 -6.8% -15.7% 50% 50% -53.6%
≤90d 30 -14.9% -23.0% 47% 47% -41.7%
all 65 +4.5% -5.4% 63% 60% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 60% -12.0%
10% -14.5% 58% -20.4%
15% -22.7% 49% -28.1%
20% -30.3% 37% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$71 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

120d coverage
Net worth$230
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses41 / 24
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)65 / 68
History coverage120d
Avg bet$82
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 65 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 70¢ 96¢ $60 $82 +$22 (+37%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 57¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $67 +$45 +67%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $61 −$60 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 +$4 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +55%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3 +$4 +109%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$13 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$3 +32%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -99%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $8 +$4 +50%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $7 +$2 +29%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$16 +156%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 12 $10 +$8 +83%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $40 −$40 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $202 +$88 +43%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) May 19 $102 +$67 +66%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 May 19 $101 −$99 -98%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO5) - ESL One Birmingham Playo Mar 29 $191 +$90 +47%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playof Mar 29 $958 −$547 -57%
Kings vs. Hornets: O/U 229.5 Mar 29 $35 −$35 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-5.5) Mar 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Clippers (-10.5) Mar 28 $50 +$39 +78%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Xtreme Gaming (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffs Mar 27 $200 +$324 +162%
Nuggets vs. Suns Mar 26 $35 +$16 +45%
Spread: Lakers (-12.5) Mar 26 $50 +$35 +70%
Spread: Clippers (-13.5) Mar 24 $100 +$59 +59%
Spread: Lakers (-2.5) Mar 24 $50 +$49 +98%
Spread: Lakers (-3.5) Mar 22 $35 +$31 +88%
Will BV Borussia 09 Dortmund win on 2026-03-21? Mar 22 $50 +$22 +45%
Hawks vs. Rockets Mar 21 $50 +$33 +67%
Will Hannover 96 win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $35 +$21 +59%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-03-20? Mar 21 $35 +$26 +75%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-03-19? Mar 20 $30 +$22 +72%
Magic vs. Hornets Mar 20 $40 +$16 +39%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-03-18? Mar 20 $50 +$20 +41%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 19 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-03-16? Mar 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 18 $35 +$18 +51%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $57 +$32 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $61 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $81 7d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $67 7d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $61 7d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 8d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $6 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $6 9d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $3 9d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $4 9d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $10 11d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 11d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $10 11d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 75¢ $10 12d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 12d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $10 12d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $10 12d
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 66¢ $8 13d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $7 13d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 13d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $26 14d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $10 14d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $10 16d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $40 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 100¢ $290 36d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 69¢ $202 37d
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) SELL Spurs 84¢ $168 38d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5 SELL Under $2 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $230.15 · official $230.16 (match) · 136 history records