Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f6a…509e sports 332 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$2,093 (-11%) realized −$2,092 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate45%148W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day10.5pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$422
7 days−$50
14 days−$187
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$856
sports 27% −$1,667
crypto 4% +$116
finance 3% −$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 67% 67% -10.9%
≤30d 17 -5.5% -14.5% 59% 59% -14.4%
≤90d 191 -18.3% -26.1% 40% 32% -16.8%
all 330 -11.0% -19.5% 45% 37% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 37% -13.8%
10% -27.2% 31% -22.0%
15% -34.2% 25% -29.5%
20% -40.7% 21% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$38 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.65 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$2,092
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses148 / 182
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)330 / 332
History coverage110d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day10.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 330 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $76 $76 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $21 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 134 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $61 +$9 +15%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $237 −$149 -63%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $163 +$74 +46%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $490 −$327 -67%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $293 +$197 +67%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $162 −$159 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $133 −$131 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $526 +$62 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $330 +$196 +59%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $103 −$100 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $327 +$106 +32%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $255 +$72 +28%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $178 +$77 +44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $24 +$12 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $13 +$11 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $148 −$136 -92%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 17 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET May 17 $10 +$14 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 17 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $76 +$51 +67%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $25 −$16 -62%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $49 +$28 +57%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $218 −$170 -78%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 2.5 May 10 $68 −$14 -20%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $22 +$3 +16%
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 10 $54 +$6 +11%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 3.5 May 10 $31 −$23 -75%
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-09? May 10 $15 $0 +3%
Spread: Juventus FC (-1.5) May 10 $8 +$14 +167%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 4.5 May 10 $16 −$11 -68%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: Both Teams to Score May 10 $21 +$1 +6%
US Lecce vs. Juventus FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $12 −$5 -45%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: Both Teams to Score May 09 $5 −$3 -50%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 09 $1 +$4 +262%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $23 −$16 -72%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 09 $25 −$20 -81%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $15 −$1 -8%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $36 −$17 -46%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $74 +$9 +13%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $104 −$42 -40%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 4.5 May 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 1.5 May 09 $22 −$2 -10%
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 09 $15 +$15 +99%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $84 −$20 -24%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $3 −$3 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $47 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $14 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 67¢ $70 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 57¢ $61 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 27¢ $89 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $237 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $163 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $163 20h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 85¢ $490 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $293 30h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $162 42h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $133 42h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $588 44h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $526 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $525 2d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $103 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $330 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 75¢ $327 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 92¢ $327 3d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $255 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $178 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $36 5d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $24 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 54¢ $13 7d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 8d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $148 8d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $11 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $95.87 · official $95.88 (match) · 1367 history records