Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:02:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f69…f76d other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$49 (+10%) realized +$49 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% +$94
other 45% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -3.3% -12.5% 31% 31% -20.3%
≤30d 16 -3.3% -12.5% 31% 31% -20.3%
≤90d 16 -3.3% -12.5% 31% 31% -20.3%
all 16 -3.3% -12.5% 31% 31% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 31% -20.3%
10% -20.9% 31% -27.9%
15% -28.5% 31% -34.9%
20% -35.5% 31% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$47 vs −$26 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage4d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $36 −$36 -99%
Lamine Yamal: 2+ goals Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$16 +307%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$11 +216%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $15 +$36 +238%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $25 +$39 +152%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $98 +$131 +135%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $25 −$25 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $51 −$50 -99%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $6 −$6 -98%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $82 −$80 -97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 23 history records