Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:57:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f65…cfc8 other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate28%9W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$1
other 37% $0
crypto 6% +$1
politics 5% −$1
sports 4% $0
culture 3% $0
finance 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.7%
all 32 +1.0% -8.6% 28% 3% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 3% -9.6%
10% -17.3% 3% -18.2%
15% -25.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses9 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage268d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $35 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $78 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $103 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $21 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $69 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $66 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Dec 13 $28 $0 -0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Oct 01 $9 $0 -1%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 30 $19 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Turkey? Sep 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will Zhipu AI have a #1 AI model this year? Sep 30 $7 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025? Sep 30 $21 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 30 $20 −$1 -3%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $27 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 29 $27 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 28 $29 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by September 30? Sep 28 $28 $0 +0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 27 $24 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Sep 27 $2 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in September? Sep 27 $2 +$1 +44%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 26 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $28 $0 -0%
Will 2025 be the hottest year on record? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 25 $28 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 24 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $2 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $35 1h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $12 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $3 9d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 9d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $32 10d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $32 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $32 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $28 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $8 10d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 49¢ $21 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $21 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $33 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $33 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $17 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $16 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $33 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $17 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 68¢ $16 12d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $33 12d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 13d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 13d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $16 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $4 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $27 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.30 · official $35.30 (match) · 106 history records