Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:20:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7f65…5c3d world 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 95d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$46 (-3%) realized −$46 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate25%3W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$135per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% $0
other 26% $0
economics 6% +$8
sports 4% −$54
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 2 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -26.9% -33.9% 18% 0% -12.3%
all 12 -22.3% -29.7% 25% 8% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.7% 8% -12.1%
10% -36.5% 8% -20.5%
15% -42.6% 0% -28.2%
20% -48.2% 0% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$14 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

95d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$46
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses3 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage95d
Avg bet$135
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
NATO article 5 before 2027? Jun 27 $377 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $216 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) May 14 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? May 14 $23 −$1 -4%
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5) Apr 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? Apr 25 $31 $0 +0%
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) Apr 21 $25 −$25 -100%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Apr 21 $76 $0 +0%
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? Apr 19 $427 $0 +0%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 12 $309 +$1 +0%
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 5.0% and 6.0%? Mar 31 $100 +$8 +8%
Valorant: NRG Academy vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North America: Mar 29 $11 +$3 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NATO article 5 before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $377 36m
NATO article 5 before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $377 1h
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $216 11d
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $216 12d
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) BUY Al Hazem SC $6 43d
Spread: Al Hazem SC (-1.5) BUY Al Hazem SC $6 43d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes $5 43d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes $6 43d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes $5 43d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? SELL Yes $6 43d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY Yes $6 43d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY Yes $6 43d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY Yes $5 43d
Will Russia enter Kherson by June 30? BUY Yes $6 43d
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5) BUY 1. FSV Mainz 05 $10 62d
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-2.5) BUY 1. FSV Mainz 05 $9 62d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $16 62d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $15 62d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $16 62d
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $15 62d
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC $13 66d
Spread: Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC (-2.5) BUY Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC $12 66d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $39 66d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $37 66d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $39 66d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $37 66d
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $427 68d
Will the US strike 13 countries in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $427 68d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $19 76d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $48 76d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records