Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T17:06:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7F 0x7f5e…db3a crypto 17 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$77 (-18%) realized −$59 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 22d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +17.7% +6.5% 67% 67% +2.4%
≤30d 15 +11.9% +1.2% 60% 60% -19.1%
≤90d 15 +11.9% +1.2% 60% 60% -19.1%
all 15 +11.9% +1.2% 60% 60% -19.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 60% -19.1%
10% -8.5% 53% -26.8%
15% -17.3% 47% -33.9%
20% -25.4% 33% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +47% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$26 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)15 / 17
History coverage22d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Up 48¢ 52¢ $25 $27 +$2 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Up 63¢ 12¢ $25 $5 −$20 (-80%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$36 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 25 $16 +$18 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 25 $26 −$18 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 25 $31 +$5 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$4 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 03 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $80 −$75 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 57¢ $34 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET SELL Up 29¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $63 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $38 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $41 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 95¢ $41 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Down 73¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 8¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Up 3¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 71¢ $35 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.78 · official $45.28 · 37 history records