Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:50:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f5d…946e other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$77 (-23%) realized −$80 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate38%8W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% −$49
crypto 13% −$21
sports 2% +$3
world 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-1.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +8.6% -1.7% 38% 33% -30.9%
≤30d 21 +8.6% -1.7% 38% 33% -30.9%
≤90d 21 +8.6% -1.7% 38% 33% -30.9%
all 21 +8.6% -1.7% 38% 33% -30.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.7% 33% -30.9%
10% -11.1% 33% -37.5%
15% -19.7% 29% -43.6%
20% -27.6% 24% -49.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 73% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -26% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$14 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 23
History coverage3d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals Yes 34¢ 37¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $27 +$12 +46%
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals Jun 21 $83 −$81 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -97%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 21 $25 −$17 -67%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $16 −$6 -36%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $5 +$11 +217%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $1 $0 -42%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $37 +$60 +163%
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals Jun 20 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 20 $4 +$1 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 20 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 20 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 20 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 +$2 +116%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 +$21 +509%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $20 −$20 -98%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kylian Mbappé: 2+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $36 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $39 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 4h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals AND Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 1. BUY 42¢ $0 5h
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $83 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 23h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 4¢ $2 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 29h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 15¢ $5 29h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $11 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 34h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 18¢ $3 34h
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 17¢ $10 36h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 39h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 30¢ $0 39h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $6 39h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 30¢ $5 39h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $97 40h
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals BUY Yes 37¢ $37 42h
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $2 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 45h
Gonzalo Plata: 1+ goals BUY Yes 36¢ $25 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $2 45h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $2 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.09 · official $37.88 (match) · 47 history records