Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T02:18:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f5c…86be crypto 536 markets active 1h ago coverage 180d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$151 (-7%) realized −$151 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%258W / 278L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$117
7 days−$124
14 days−$535
30 days−$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$193
sports 0% −$8
economics 0% −$4
world 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 146 -12.0% -20.4% 46% 43% -21.7%
≤30d 306 -43.4% -48.8% 32% 26% -43.2%
≤90d 456 -8.0% -16.8% 48% 44% -19.0%
all 536 -7.6% -16.4% 48% 44% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 44% -17.7%
10% -24.4% 42% -25.6%
15% -31.7% 40% -32.8%
20% -38.4% 37% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.88 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

180d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses258 / 278
Open positions0
Markets (closed)536 / 536
History coverage180d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 536 Trades
no open positions (68 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$13 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$20 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $13 +$18 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $16 +$20 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $16 −$15 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Down 21¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1328 history records