Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:05:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7f57…e7a8 world 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 479d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$53 (+4%) realized +$53 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate53%17W / 15L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% −$1
other 31% +$29
sports 13% +$19
weather 6% +$2
politics 4% +$1
crypto 4% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-3.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 12 -0.3% -9.8% 8% 0% -9.8%
all 32 +7.1% -3.1% 53% 9% -5.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.1% 9% -5.6%
10% -12.3% 9% -14.7%
15% -20.8% 6% -22.9%
20% -28.6% 6% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$1 · ×3.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.31 per $1 lost it wins $8.31
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

479d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$53
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses17 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage479d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 87¢ $4 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $32 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $29 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $29 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $36 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $33 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $33 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $24 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 11 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 $0 +3%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian Presidential election by 5-10%? May 19 $55 +$1 +2%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Anders Arborelius be the next pope? May 09 $2 $0 +2%
Playboi Carti's "MUSIC" debuts at #1 on Billboard 200? Mar 22 $2 +$3 +144%
Will 'Magazine Dreams' gross more than 3m on opening weekend? Mar 22 $111 $0 +0%
Will Iowa State win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Marc Gasol make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Mar 21 $112 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 42-43°F on March 3? Mar 21 $35 +$1 +3%
VCU vs. Duquesne Mar 03 $42 −$6 -14%
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-03-04? Mar 03 $150 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 45-46°F on February Mar 03 $46 +$1 +2%
Maine vs. New Hampshire Mar 03 $84 +$22 +27%
Will Wolves win on 2025-02-25? Feb 27 $55 +$29 +52%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000.00 by March 31? Feb 27 $45 $0 +1%
Will Mark Few make the 2025 Class of the Naismith Basketball Hall of F Feb 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Payton Pritchard win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Feb 23 $52 +$3 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $32 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $15 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $16 26h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $31 28h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $13 40h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 44h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $4 47h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $29 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 95¢ $31 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 95¢ $35 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 79¢ $36 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $36 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $22 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $24 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $9 4d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $11 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 72¢ $27 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.48 · official $3.48 (match) · 108 history records