Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7f57…2282 sports 932 markets active 2h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,877 (-4%) realized −$3,849 · open −$28
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate62%579W / 352L
Whale WR85%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$824est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$121
7 days−$255
14 days−$465
30 days−$2,847
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$3,018
other 6% −$1,360
crypto 1% −$259
world 0% −$40
economics 0% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -5.9% -14.8% 54% 52% -17.2%
≤30d 305 -6.1% -15.0% 63% 56% -16.7%
≤90d 891 -5.9% -14.8% 63% 57% -13.7%
all 931 -5.7% -14.7% 62% 57% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.7% 57% -13.8%
10% -22.8% 41% -22.1%
15% -30.3% 23% -29.6%
20% -37.1% 12% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 85% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$70 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$3,849
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses579 / 352
Whale WR (big bets)85%
Est. fees paid−$824
Open positions1
Markets (closed)931 / 932
History coverage91d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 931 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis Clement Tabur 79¢ 10¢ $32 $4 −$28 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva Jun 17 $34 +$12 +36%
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 17 $49 −$29 -59%
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska Jun 17 $88 −$19 -21%
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli Jun 17 $39 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $12 −$11 -94%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $22 −$9 -43%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $44 +$8 +18%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $50 +$7 +14%
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 16 $59 −$15 -25%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda Jun 15 $44 +$15 +35%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien Jun 15 $78 +$17 +21%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Roberto Carballes Baena Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Taro Daniel Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Libema Open: Kamil Majchrzak vs Alex de Minaur Jun 14 $80 −$79 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$54 -53%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $71 −$2 -2%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $45 +$46 +101%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $70 −$70 -100%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $70 +$9 +13%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $50 +$16 +32%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Alex de Minaur Jun 13 $50 +$12 +24%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $78 −$77 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$65 +128%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: METANOIA WOLVES vs Alzon (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Séri Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 12 $50 −$18 -35%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $50 +$16 +32%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $71 +$67 +95%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $50 +$12 +24%
Ilkley: Arthur Gea vs Mark Lajal Jun 12 $50 +$10 +20%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Marco Cecchinato Jun 12 $64 +$22 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $71 −$32 -45%
T20 ACC Premier Cup, Women: Hong Kong, China vs United Arab Emirates Jun 12 $50 +$10 +20%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $50 −$50 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$58 +222%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $36 +$70 +196%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $71 −$50 -71%
Tucuman: Santiago Rodriguez Taverna vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 11 $48 +$27 +56%
Lyon: Thomas Faurel vs Clement Tabur Jun 11 $70 +$43 +62%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $117 −$22 -19%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Federico Bondioli Jun 11 $50 +$10 +20%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $72 +$8 +11%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs James Duckworth Jun 11 $50 +$16 +32%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $47 −$47 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dublin: Clement Tabur vs Stefanos Sakellaridis BUY Clement Tabur 79¢ $32 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Anastasiia Sobolieva 100¢ $31 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Julia Grabher 41¢ $1 3h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Anastasiia Sobolieva 48¢ $15 3h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva SELL Julia Grabher 52¢ $15 3h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Anastasiia Sobolieva BUY Julia Grabher 61¢ $19 3h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau SELL Alexis Galarneau 24¢ $20 3h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 15¢ $5 4h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 28¢ $16 4h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska SELL Petr Brunclik 38¢ $20 4h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Petr Brunclik 68¢ $37 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli SELL Marco Cecchinato 62¢ $38 5h
Dublin: Oliver Crawford vs Alexis Galarneau BUY Alexis Galarneau 57¢ $49 5h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska SELL Petr Brunclik 71¢ $49 5h
Parma: Marco Cecchinato vs Federico Bondioli BUY Marco Cecchinato 63¢ $39 5h
Poznan: Petr Brunclik vs Florian Broska BUY Petr Brunclik 72¢ $50 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up $11 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 10h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $22 11h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo SELL Alex de Minaur 100¢ $52 21h
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo BUY Alex de Minaur 84¢ $44 24h
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo BUY Francisco Cerundolo 87¢ $50 24h
Halle Open: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Karen Khachanov 88¢ $44 28h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet SELL Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 49¢ $44 28h
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet BUY Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard 64¢ $59 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda SELL Tommy Paul 98¢ $59 2d
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Zachary Svajda BUY Tommy Paul 72¢ $44 2d
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Flavio Cobolli 44¢ $51 2d
Halle Open: Max Schoenhaus vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 82¢ $78 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.02 · official $4.22 (match) · 1976 history records