Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7F 0x7f54…ac8d other 29 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$575 (+3%) realized +$564 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate75%15W / 5L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$583per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit21%portable
Net worth$5,061now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$584
7 days+$125
14 days+$125
30 days+$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$828
sports 45% +$840
crypto 4% −$613
world 2% −$408
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +19.6% +8.2% 74% 63% -8.2%
≤30d 19 +19.6% +8.2% 74% 63% -8.2%
≤90d 20 +19.1% +7.7% 75% 60% -5.5%
all 20 +19.1% +7.7% 75% 60% -5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.7% 60% -5.5%
10% -2.6% 50% -14.6%
15% -12.0% 20% -22.8%
20% -20.6% 10% -30.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$903) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +41% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$136 vs −$281 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.45 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$5,061
Realized+$564
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses15 / 5
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions9
Markets (closed)20 / 29
History coverage52d
Avg bet$583
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit21%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $478 $474 −$4 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ $200 $270 +$70 (+35%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $200 $228 +$28 (+14%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $200 $215 +$15 (+8%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? No 72¢ 70¢ $200 $196 −$4 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $177 −$23 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $200 $174 −$26 (-13%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $200 $159 −$41 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $923 +$207 +22%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,509 +$51 +3%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $507 +$197 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $404 +$96 +24%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $903 +$425 +47%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $408 −$408 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $202 +$51 +25%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $26 +$78 +305%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $115 +$13 +11%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $684 +$223 +33%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$18 +18%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $508 −$367 -72%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $202 +$49 +24%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $709 −$613 -86%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$57 +56%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$34 +33%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$6 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $103 −$8 -8%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $1,005 +$28 +3%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $5,868 +$510 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 97¢ $416 59m
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 97¢ $1,509 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 72¢ $203 2h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $404 9h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $487 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $506 10h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $507 10h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $700 13h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 28h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $507 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $907 30h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 89¢ $115 33h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 33h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $141 34h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $684 34h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $254 46h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $254 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $255 46h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 46h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 79¢ $202 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 80¢ $101 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 84¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 83¢ $505 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $102 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 74¢ $101 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 79¢ $101 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 50¢ $96 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $96 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,060.89 · official $5,060.97 (match) · 59 history records