Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:11:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7F 0x7f4e…1f39 politics 89 markets active 2h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$825 (+1%) realized +$825 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate9%8W / 80L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$1,443per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$12
14 days−$24
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 45% −$82
other 42% +$839
sports 5% +$64
economics 3% −$5
world 3% −$46
culture 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 35 +0.0% -9.5% 9% 3% -9.6%
≤90d 88 +2.7% -7.0% 9% 7% -9.0%
all 88 +2.7% -7.0% 9% 7% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 7% -9.0%
10% -15.9% 7% -17.7%
15% -24.1% 5% -25.6%
20% -31.5% 3% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 93% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,578) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$128 vs −$3 · ×39.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.06 per $1 lost it wins $4.06
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$825
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses8 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage80d
Avg bet$1,443
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $252 $252 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $598 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 18 $496 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1,494 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,489 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,616 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,668 −$3 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,654 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,297 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $2,202 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 05 $1,173 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,766 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in May? Jun 04 $625 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $854 +$3 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $914 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 27 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2,483 −$3 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 26 $1,391 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,363 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $2,831 −$3 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $1,328 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $2,586 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,439 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,044 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $1,447 −$2 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $2,884 −$5 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,453 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,354 −$2 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $21 −$21 -100%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5 May 21 $48 +$51 +105%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 20 $1,246 −$2 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 19 $1,569 −$2 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $1,317 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 19 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $1,523 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 18 $1,549 −$2 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 17 $1,352 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,556 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,555 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $1,560 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $1,506 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $1,563 −$2 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $1,566 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 15 $3,087 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $252 1h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $597 16h
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $598 20h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $495 20h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $605 23h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $496 23h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $606 27h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,492 4d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,494 4d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,486 6d
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,489 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,614 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,616 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,575 6d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,578 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,665 7d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,668 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,652 11d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,654 11d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,295 12d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,297 12d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,573 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,575 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $633 13d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $634 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,172 14d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,173 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,166 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,167 14d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $912 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.84 · official $251.84 (match) · 243 history records