Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:29:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f4d…fdbe crypto 697 markets active 0h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (78 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$53 (-1%) realized −$98 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate88%612W / 84L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day77.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$4
14 days−$104
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$99
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (78 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 193 -2.2% -11.5% 82% 18% -9.7%
≤30d 696 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 30% -11.6%
≤90d 696 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 30% -11.6%
all 696 -1.0% -10.4% 88% 30% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover77.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.4% 30% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.0% 9% -20.1%
15% -26.8% 3% -27.8%
20% -34.0% 2% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$98
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses612 / 84
Open positions1
Markets (closed)696 / 697
History coverage18d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day77.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 696 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Down 17¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-74%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 78 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $12 +$5 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$2 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $18 −$6 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $13 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$5 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 15 $14 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$4 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$10 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $12 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$6 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$13 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $14 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 14 $14 −$14 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$7 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 14 $13 −$13 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 14 $14 −$13 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 23¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $5 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 53¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $2 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET SELL Down 42¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $2 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $3 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Down 56¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $3 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $2 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $4 12m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $2.39 · 1839 history records