Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:03:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f4a…8c99 other 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$317 (-20%) realized −$167 · open −$150
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit28%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$198
7 days−$337
14 days−$325
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$302
sports 34% −$173
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -17.5% -25.4% 33% 33% -37.7%
≤30d 17 -21.9% -29.4% 29% 29% -30.3%
≤90d 17 -21.9% -29.4% 29% 29% -30.3%
all 17 -21.9% -29.4% 29% 29% -30.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 29% -30.3%
10% -36.1% 29% -37.0%
15% -42.3% 29% -43.0%
20% -48.0% 29% -48.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 59% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$133 vs −$83 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$167
Unrealized−$150
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage10d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $74 +$117 +158%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 22 $154 −$150 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $48 −$47 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 +$99 +226%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $153 −$150 -98%
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Canada (-5.5) Jun 19 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$148 +146%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$242 +237%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $77 −$75 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $77 −$75 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 12¢ $51 7h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 38¢ $74 8h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Argentina 20¢ $102 8h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 29h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 34h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $48 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $15 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 30¢ $44 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 17¢ $51 2d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 38¢ $102 2d
Spread: Morocco (-3.5) BUY Morocco 9¢ $51 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $102 4d
Spread: Canada (-5.5) BUY Canada 62¢ $101 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 5d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $51 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $344 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 7d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 9¢ $26 7d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $77 9d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 17¢ $26 10d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 32¢ $51 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.37 (match) · 29 history records