Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
7F 0x7f45…595a other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-32%) realized −$37 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate75%6W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$37
world 9% $0
economics 5% $0
crypto 4% +$1
politics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤30d 3 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
≤90d 3 +3.8% -6.1% 100% 0% -6.1%
all 8 -18.1% -25.9% 75% 25% -54.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 25% -54.9%
10% -33.0% 12% -59.2%
15% -39.5% 0% -63.2%
20% -45.4% 0% -66.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$17 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses6 / 2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)8 / 15
History coverage240d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+38%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 12¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$1 (-33%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 38¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-51%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-21%)
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Jun 16 $6 $0 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jun 16 $11 $0 +3%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Nov 04 $5 +$1 +26%
SBF released from custody in 2025? Oct 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? Oct 23 $60 −$15 -25%
Will Trump visit China by March 31? Oct 23 $2 $0 +16%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Oct 23 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 38¢ $2 1h
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $6 224d
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? BUY No 65¢ $5 235d
SBF released from custody in 2025? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 235d
Will Trump pardon SBF by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $1 235d
Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? BUY No 45¢ $15 236d
Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? SELL Yes 55¢ $38 236d
Over $10M committed to the ZKLSOL raise on MetaDAO? BUY Yes 65¢ $45 236d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 236d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $5 236d
Will Trump visit China by March 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 239d
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? BUY No 97¢ $11 239d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? BUY No 80¢ $5 239d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 239d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.74 · official $7.69 (match) · 23 history records