Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f44…2e3d crypto 14 markets active 2d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$525 (-19%) realized −$525 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$338
sports 33% −$741
crypto 13% −$134
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-30.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -23.0% -30.3% 57% 21% -24.5%
≤30d 14 -23.0% -30.3% 57% 21% -24.5%
≤90d 14 -23.0% -30.3% 57% 21% -24.5%
all 14 -23.0% -30.3% 57% 21% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.3% 21% -24.5%
10% -37.0% 21% -31.7%
15% -43.1% 7% -38.3%
20% -48.6% 0% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$165 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$525
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage4d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $657 −$653 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $50 +$4 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $121 −$120 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$23 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $30 +$1 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $100 +$8 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $753 +$189 +25%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 13 $100 −$99 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $75 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 11 $56 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 11 $25 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$20 -39%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $542 +$225 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $53 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $101 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $101 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $101 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 81¢ $101 40h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 40h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 92¢ $50 41h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $101 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 46h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 47h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $25 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 73¢ $101 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 2d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $841 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes $1 3d
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 98¢ $100 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 98¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 93¢ $99 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 92¢ $301 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $25 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records