Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:43:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f44…fd97
crypto · 109 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$23 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$24 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$300
Realized−$24
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses90 / 13
Open positions6
Markets (closed)103 / 109
History coverage213d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 6 History 103 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$3
14 days+$5
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Is Earth flat? No 98¢ 97¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $80 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $25 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $25 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $71,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $20 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 79m? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will "Backrooms" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 35m? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 May 25-31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by May 30, 2026? Jun 01 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $20 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $20 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 30? May 30 $25 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 66% −$12
other 21% −$7
sports 6% −$7
politics 3% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $50 15h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 93¢ $15 16h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $50 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 19h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 26h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 27h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 99¢ $50 28h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $100 28h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $50 29h
Is Earth flat? BUY No 98¢ $30 39h
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 98¢ $50 39h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $50 39h
Will Bitcoin dip to $56,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $40 45h
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL Yes 94¢ $28 2d
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 6¢ $2 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $40 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $100 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? SELL Yes 98¢ $10 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $50 3d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $50 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +0.4% -9.1% 78% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 95 -0.0% -9.5% 92% 2% -9.2%
≤90d 95 -0.0% -9.5% 92% 2% -9.2%
all 103 -4.2% -13.4% 87% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.4% 3% -10.4%
10% -21.7% 1% -19.0%
15% -29.2% 1% -26.8%
20% -36.2% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $300.34 · official $300.34 (match) · 227 history records