Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:19:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f42…3673 other 95 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$30 (+0%) realized +$30 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate54%50W / 43L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$4
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% $0
other 28% +$6
world 22% +$4
economics 12% +$1
sports 4% −$8
tech 4% +$15
crypto 1% −$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -0.6% -10.1% 25% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 7% -9.4%
≤90d 30 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 3% -9.3%
all 93 -2.0% -11.3% 54% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.4%
10% -19.8% 1% -18.0%
15% -27.6% 1% -25.9%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.42 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized+$30
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses50 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)93 / 95
History coverage470d
Avg bet$99
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $169 $169 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 83¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $186 −$1 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $58 +$6 +10%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $70 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $6 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $180 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 16 $14 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $43 −$7 -15%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $286 −$17 -6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $355 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $349 +$12 +3%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $158 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $28 +$3 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $152 +$3 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 27 $163 +$1 +1%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $196 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 25 $320 +$14 +4%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 25 $191 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 18 $190 −$8 -4%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $868 +$1 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 13 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $47 +$2 +5%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 13 $41 +$1 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $79 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,107 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,006 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $1,006 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 10 $1,105 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115K in June? Dec 10 $2 $0 +9%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jun 11 $6 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 250–274 times June 6–13? Jun 11 $6 $0 +2%
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jun 10 $7 $0 -6%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 Jun 09 $7 $0 +1%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 07 $6 +$1 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in June? Jun 06 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $2500 on June 5 at 5 PM ET? Jun 05 $8 $0 +4%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 8-12%? Jun 04 $5 $0 +2%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 04 $8 $0 -0%
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland? Jun 03 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $1 $0 +6%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jun 01 $8 $0 -0%
Will Federico Dimarco be named the Champions League Final man of the m Jun 01 $16 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Canada in 2025? May 31 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $143 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $26 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $185 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $186 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $57 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $58 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $70 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $70 33h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 39h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $2 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $4 41h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $180 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $180 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 3d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $20 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $16 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $1 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 13¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $77 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $35 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $27 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $169.33 · official $168.92 (match) · 321 history records