Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T19:26:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7F 0x7f42…61e9 crypto 649 markets active 1h ago coverage 33d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$10 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate16%100W / 537L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day44.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$56now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$125
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 2% -9.9%
≤30d 614 -2.0% -11.3% 14% 3% -9.1%
≤90d 637 +2.3% -7.5% 16% 4% -8.0%
all 637 +2.3% -7.5% 16% 4% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 4% -8.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.3% 3% -16.8%
15% -24.4% 2% -24.9%
20% -31.8% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

33d coverage
Net worth$56
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses100 / 537
Open positions12
Markets (closed)637 / 649
History coverage33d ⚠
Avg bet$12
Trades / day44.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 637 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? Yes 89¢ 100¢ $19 $21 +$2 (+12%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? No 99¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 17? No 96¢ 96¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 18? No 74¢ 99¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? No 100¢ 99¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? No 3¢ 4¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+33%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-21%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? No 26¢ 1¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-97%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? No 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $15 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -41%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,200 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $56,000 and $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,300 and $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,300 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $54,000 and $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,200 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,200 and $1,300 on June 18? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 18? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 18? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 96¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY No 3¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $0 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 17? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 3h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 4h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $70,000 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $5 23h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 15? SELL No 36¢ $2 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 35¢ $2 29h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 15? BUY No 35¢ $2 29h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY No 1¢ $0 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? SELL No 99¢ $2 30h
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $72,000 on June 18? SELL No 98¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.96 · official $55.96 (match) · 3500 history records