Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f41…c4f9 other 133 markets active 0h ago coverage 106d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$36 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$25
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$15
other 26% −$17
sports 15% −$5
crypto 9% −$1
economics 5% −$1
finance 5% −$4
world 4% −$1
culture 3% −$3
tech 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -0.7% -10.2% 10% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 68 -0.7% -10.1% 6% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 117 -0.4% -9.9% 14% 0% -9.8%
all 132 -0.4% -9.9% 15% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

106d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized−$36
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 112
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage106d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 17 $105 −$1 -0%
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $39 $0 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? Jun 16 $128 −$4 -3%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 16 $155 −$1 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $118 −$1 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 14 $107 $0 -0%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $45 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $39 $0 -1%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $115 −$2 -2%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $215 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $49 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 12 $111 −$2 -2%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $48 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 11 $45 $0 +1%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
Will Bart Verbruggen record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA Wor Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $150 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 09 $43 $0 +0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 09 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $64 $0 -0%
Will Senegal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $57 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 06 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 05 $47 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $10 $0 -2%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $46 −$1 -1%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 04 $63 −$2 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 04 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $41 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $20 $0 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $158 −$3 -2%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $85 $0 -0%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 02 $11 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $57 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $52 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $378 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $117 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $227 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $42 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 28 $43 −$1 -1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 28 $50 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $53 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $51 24m
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 1h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 9h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $39 9h
Will Folarin Balogun be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $39 17h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 91¢ $61 18h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $62 23h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 90¢ $50 24h
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $51 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? SELL No 90¢ $63 30h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $65 36h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $40 37h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $18 45h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $18 45h
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $5 45h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 45h
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $57 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $59 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $32 2d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $27 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $44 2d
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $39 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $49 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $52 3d
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $64 3d
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $64 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $50.36 · official $50.36 (match) · 494 history records