Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
7F 0x7f41…0cc9 sports 97 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$13 (+7%) realized +$11 · open +$2
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate55%46W / 38L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$85now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$4
14 days+$9
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 47% +$9
other 46% +$4
crypto 5% $0
politics 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +12.7% +2.0% 57% 46% -2.7%
≤30d 84 +12.2% +1.5% 55% 49% -0.9%
≤90d 84 +12.2% +1.5% 55% 49% -0.9%
all 84 +12.2% +1.5% 55% 49% -0.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 49% -0.9%
10% -8.2% 48% -10.3%
15% -17.1% 48% -19.0%
20% -25.2% 45% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +23% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$85
Realized+$11
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses46 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions11
Markets (closed)84 / 97
History coverage12d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.4
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 84 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $34 $34 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $18 −$2 (-8%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $11 $18 +$6 (+55%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $9 $9 −$0 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-21%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-20%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-24%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 16¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$2 +158%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +5%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $5 $0 +6%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +101%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 +$1 +51%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 $0 +7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 -4%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +115%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 -35%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 $0 +10%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 $0 -1%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 +$1 +101%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $2 +$2 +76%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 $0 -2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $1 +$1 +101%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $1 +$1 +93%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $1 +$1 +80%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $1 +$1 +123%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $1 +$1 +140%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $1 +$2 +172%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 10 $1 $0 +5%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 +$1 +105%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 10 $1 +$1 +109%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $1 +$1 +124%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $1 +$1 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $3 34m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $1 37m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $21 1h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes $21 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 33¢ $1 6h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $1 7h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 7h
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 53¢ $2 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $1 9h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 9h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 34¢ $1 11h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 24h
James Rodríguez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $1 25h
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $1 25h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $1 25h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 73¢ $2 31h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 28¢ $1 31h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 33¢ $1 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 33h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 33h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 75¢ $2 34h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $1 34h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 SELL Under 99¢ $2 35h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 0.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1 36h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $1 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $85.48 · official $85.48 (match) · 163 history records