Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:45:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7f3e…82a3 crypto 73 markets active 1h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$54 (+10%) realized +$59 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate36%26W / 46L
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$61
7 days+$60
14 days+$60
30 days+$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$37
crypto 24% −$57
sports 19% +$50
politics 6% +$12
world 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +42.8% +29.2% 60% 60% +29.3%
≤30d 10 +42.8% +29.2% 60% 60% +29.3%
≤90d 10 +42.8% +29.2% 60% 60% +29.3%
all 72 -7.8% -16.6% 36% 33% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 33% -0.4%
10% -24.6% 32% -10.0%
15% -31.8% 29% -18.7%
20% -38.5% 24% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$4 · ×2.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$59
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses26 / 46
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)72 / 73
History coverage190d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $40 +$19 +48%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$1 -6%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $42 +$12 +27%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$1 +17%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$20 +250%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $8 −$5 -58%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$11 +110%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $15 −$14 -92%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? Jan 04 $21 −$21 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $18 +$16 +91%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Jan 03 $10 +$3 +28%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 3? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -72%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 2? Jan 02 $10 +$10 +104%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 28? Dec 27 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on December 28? Dec 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK vs. Kasımpaşa SK end in a draw? Dec 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-21? Dec 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 21? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sevilla FC end in a draw? Dec 20 $3 −$1 -35%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Everton FC win on 2025-12-20? Dec 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 18? Dec 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" while addressing the nation Dec 18 $1 +$2 +233%
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on D Dec 18 $20 +$1 +8%
Will Trump say "ISIS" or "Syria" while addressing the nation on Decemb Dec 18 $3 +$4 +150%
Will Trump say "Venezuela" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 18 $1 +$7 +733%
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" while addressing the nation on Decem Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump say "Border" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Big Beautiful Bill" while addressing the nation on Dec Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Nuclear" while addressing the nation on December 17? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 17? Dec 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 17? Dec 17 $12 −$9 -77%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $9 +$7 +76%
Will Manchester United FC vs. AFC Bournemouth end in a draw? Dec 15 $15 +$10 +64%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $5 $0 -0%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-12-15? Dec 15 $5 +$4 +80%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on December 15? Dec 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Deportivo Alavés vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? Dec 14 $1 −$1 -60%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $35 +$13 +38%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Bologna FC 1909 vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Dec 14 $5 $0 +9%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-14? Dec 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 51m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 97¢ $60 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $40 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 4h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $9 5h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $6 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 78¢ $54 7h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 48¢ $11 7h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $6 8h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 8h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 27h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $9 27h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 28h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 28h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 65¢ $0 30h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 63¢ $21 30h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 31h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 32h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 32h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 2d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 163d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 30¢ $6 163d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-04? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 163d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 38¢ $7 163d
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-01-04? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 163d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.03 · official $0.03 (match) · 141 history records