Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:52:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f3d…299c other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$427 (+0%) realized +$427 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate25%28W / 86L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$901per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,204now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$19
14 days−$29
30 days−$52
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 42% −$55
other 41% $0
sports 5% +$596
world 5% −$118
culture 3% −$4
economics 2% −$13
crypto 1% +$1
finance 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 -17.9% -25.7% 11% 2% -9.3%
all 114 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 7% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 7% -9.2%
10% -21.2% 7% -17.9%
15% -28.8% 4% -25.8%
20% -35.8% 4% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,370) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +10% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$7 · ×5.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$1,204
Realized+$427
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses28 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)114 / 116
History coverage133d
Avg bet$901
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 114 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $694 $695 +$0 (+0%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $510 $509 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $1,256 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $1,959 −$3 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,809 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 13 $2,891 −$5 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,434 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 12 $1,325 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $2,078 −$4 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,279 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $2,429 −$3 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $1,243 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,874 −$4 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $3,166 −$3 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,128 −$2 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $321 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in May? Jun 03 $610 +$1 +0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $1,955 −$3 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $557 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,801 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3,929 −$4 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,476 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,457 −$2 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $1,478 −$2 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $1,487 −$3 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,479 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,370 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,324 −$2 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? May 02 $790 +$2 +0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Apr 30 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 27 $2,021 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2,260 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $2,094 −$1 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $1,369 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3,328 −$3 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $1,490 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $2,088 −$2 -0%
Rockets vs. Thunder Apr 07 $15 −$15 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-14? Apr 07 $9 −$9 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Apr 07 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-02-22? Apr 07 $14 −$14 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Apr 07 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-02-06? Apr 07 $19 −$19 -100%
76ers vs. Pacers Apr 07 $12 −$12 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Apr 07 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Borussia Mönchengladbach win on 2026-03-13? Apr 07 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-18? Apr 07 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $510 1h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $731 6h
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $732 7h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $561 25h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $561 26h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $637 28h
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $638 30h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $695 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,421 4d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,423 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,244 5d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,246 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,410 5d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,412 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,432 6d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,434 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,323 6d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,325 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,324 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,326 7d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 11d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,277 12d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,279 12d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,096 13d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,097 13d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,241 14d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,243 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,406 15d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,408 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,204.19 · official $1,204.19 (match) · 362 history records