Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T07:56:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f3d…95b1 sports 421 markets active 2h ago coverage 176d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$776 (-4%) realized −$801 · open +$25
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%100W / 304L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$359est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$674now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,365
7 days−$5,291
14 days−$1,040
30 days−$1,040
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$965
crypto 1% −$32
other 0% −$10
politics 0% −$10
culture 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 328 -47.8% -52.8% 14% 14% -40.8%
≤30d 379 -16.9% -24.8% 23% 23% -15.3%
≤90d 379 -16.9% -24.8% 23% 23% -15.3%
all 404 -15.8% -23.8% 25% 23% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 23% -15.2%
10% -31.1% 23% -23.3%
15% -37.7% 22% -30.7%
20% -43.8% 21% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -30% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$34 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

176d coverage
Net worth$674
Realized−$801
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses100 / 304
Est. fees paid−$359
Open positions17
Markets (closed)404 / 421
History coverage176d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 404 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon Pedro Martinez 64¢ 66¢ $130 $133 +$3 (+2%)
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama Anastasia Kulikova 24¢ 26¢ $70 $73 +$3 (+5%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5 Under 20¢ 44¢ $25 $55 +$30 (+121%)
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet Chloe Paquet 27¢ 30¢ $45 $49 +$4 (+9%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 48¢ 48¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) Seattle Mariners 20¢ 20¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa Allura Zamarripa 11¢ 12¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik Mattia Bellucci 28¢ 28¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 Over $35 $32 −$2 (-7%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5 Under 23¢ 36¢ $20 $31 +$11 (+57%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-4.5) New York Yankees 15¢ 25¢ $18 $30 +$12 (+69%)
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle Elias Ymer 42¢ 20¢ $61 $30 −$31 (-52%)
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Under $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian Fangran Tian 16¢ 16¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-3%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Under $15 $12 −$3 (-19%)
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata Ryo Tabata 25¢ 28¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini Peter Buldorini 13¢ 12¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 125 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Nande+4 vs Noir Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 16 $71 −$18 -25%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 16 $31 +$46 +150%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 16 $31 +$106 +344%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $61 +$106 +172%
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea Jun 15 $172 +$116 +67%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut Jun 15 $111 +$63 +57%
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 15 $304 −$10 -3%
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 15 $61 +$67 +109%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $41 +$959 +2330%
Spread: San Francisco Giants (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 +$75 +365%
O/U 4.5 Rounds Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $36 −$35 -97%
Grass Court Championships: Nikola Bartunkova vs Coco Gauff Jun 14 $1,120 −$38 -3%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $36 +$119 +332%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $65 +$37 +57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $20 +$40 +197%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Raphael Collignon vs Roberto Bautista Agut Jun 14 $75 −$74 -98%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Serie Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $61 −$60 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Hannah Klugman Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-5.5) Jun 14 $112 +$122 +109%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stag Jun 14 $81 −$80 -99%
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-3.5) Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) Jun 14 $46 −$45 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $21 −$20 -97%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Cloud9 (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Washington Nationals (-3.5) Jun 13 $26 +$113 +442%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Jun 13 $20 +$85 +414%
Spread: Curaçao (-1.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -97%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5) Jun 13 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5) Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Alexander Bublik BUY Mattia Bellucci 28¢ $36 1h
Royan: Yanki Erel vs Ryo Tabata BUY Ryo Tabata 25¢ $10 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Alina Korneeva vs Fangran Tian BUY Fangran Tian 16¢ $26 1h
Brescia: Julia Grabher vs Chloe Paquet BUY Chloe Paquet 27¢ $46 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Jeline Vandromme vs Allura Zamarripa BUY Allura Zamarripa 11¢ $36 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $15 1h
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5) BUY Seattle Mariners 20¢ $41 1h
Figueira Da Foz: Anastasia Kulikova vs Mai Hontama BUY Anastasia Kulikova 24¢ $72 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $36 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Under $31 1h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $46 1h
Dublin: Mees Rottgering vs Peter Buldorini BUY Peter Buldorini 13¢ $10 21h
Nottingham Open: Talia Gibson vs Francesca Jones BUY Francesca Jones 25¢ $20 21h
Brescia: Raluca Serban vs Mayar Sherif BUY Raluca Serban 12¢ $10 21h
Parma: Pedro Martinez vs Daniel Rincon BUY Pedro Martinez 64¢ $131 21h
Dublin: Elias Ymer vs Henry Searle BUY Elias Ymer 42¢ $62 21h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $61 21h
Nottingham Open: Emma Raducanu vs Karolina Pliskova BUY Emma Raducanu 51¢ $304 21h
Spread: Athletics (-3.5) BUY Athletics 22¢ $31 26h
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 20¢ $31 26h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY Young Ninjas 20¢ $31 26h
Nottingham 2: Anton Matusevich vs Arthur Gea BUY Arthur Gea 59¢ $172 26h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 19¢ $31 26h
PortlandFire vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY PortlandFire 11¢ $31 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $31 26h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clut BUY Team Nemesis 63¢ $111 33h
O/U 4.5 Rounds BUY Over 37¢ $28 33h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 17¢ $10 33h
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY Yes 14¢ $46 33h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 5.5 BUY Over $36 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $674.35 · official $674.35 (match) · 713 history records