Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T14:11:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f3b…7bb2
weather · 310 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$42 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$10 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized+$10
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses212 / 95
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)307 / 310
History coverage69d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day11.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 3 History 307 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$11
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Over 86¢ 86¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Under 88¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? Yes 56¢ 42¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 21? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Yes 91¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11PM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3AM ET Up 32¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 21? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $7 +$1 +10%
Rayan: 2+ goals Jun 14 $30 +$1 +2%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $5 −$3 -52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $6 −$5 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +5%
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $11 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 Jun 12 $4 −$2 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $45 $0 +1%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 11 $7 +$2 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $9 $0 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $7 $0 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 10? Jun 10 $7 +$1 +11%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 9? Jun 10 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $36 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 9? Jun 09 $25 +$1 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $25 +$2 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $34 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $33 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $25 +$1 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $25 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 06 $6 $0 -4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 5? Jun 06 $9 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $21 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $13 +$1 +6%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $9 +$1 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $3 +$1 +40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1 $0 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $4 +$1 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 3? Jun 03 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2AM ET Jun 03 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8PM ET Jun 03 $8 +$2 +27%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 02 $44 −$3 -8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 70% −$1
crypto 20% +$9
world 3% +$4
other 3% −$2
sports 2% −$5
politics 1% +$1
tech 0% +$3
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY Yes 56¢ $3 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 13.5 Total Corners BUY Under 88¢ $5 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 86¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $6 10h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? SELL No 96¢ $5 10h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 91¢ $7 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $10 13h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Over 30¢ $2 14h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 15h
Rayan: 2+ goals BUY No 98¢ $30 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 95¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 94¢ $0 17h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 89¢ $11 17h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 61¢ $5 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 25h
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 83¢ $10 25h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $10 32h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 92¢ $9 33h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $35 34h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $1 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $5 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $4 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 67¢ $1 36h
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $35 36h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $11 39h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? SELL No 96¢ $5 40h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 12? BUY No 85¢ $4 40h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 SELL No 17¢ $2 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? SELL No 95¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -0.7% -10.2% 90% 16% -8.0%
≤30d 151 -8.0% -16.8% 70% 29% -10.7%
≤90d 307 -3.2% -12.4% 69% 34% -9.2%
all 307 -3.2% -12.4% 69% 34% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover11.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 34% -9.2%
10% -20.8% 19% -17.9%
15% -28.4% 12% -25.8%
20% -35.4% 9% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.04 · official $13.04 (match) · 818 history records