Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:12:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7F 0x7f3b…11fb sports 101 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$805 (-1%) realized −$805 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%47W / 51L
Whale WR64%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$843per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$376est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,911
7 days+$1,799
14 days−$3,426
30 days+$849
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$692
other 35% −$64
crypto 1% +$360
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-21.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +22.9% +11.2% 50% 50% +1.3%
≤30d 60 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 52% -8.2%
≤90d 60 -4.3% -13.4% 52% 52% -8.2%
all 98 -12.8% -21.1% 48% 48% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.1% 48% -9.9%
10% -28.6% 44% -18.6%
15% -35.5% 36% -26.4%
20% -41.9% 22% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 64% (≥$1,134) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -12% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$528 vs −$495 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$805
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses47 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)64%
Est. fees paid−$376
Open positions0
Markets (closed)98 / 101
History coverage243d
Avg bet$843
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 98 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $508 −$240 -47%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $669 +$531 +79%
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Jun 29 $1,089 +$411 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $497 −$239 -48%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $983 +$216 +22%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $1,963 +$537 +27%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $383 −$178 -46%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2,528 +$872 +34%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $2,011 −$777 -39%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $2,385 +$919 +38%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $195 −$190 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $508 −$500 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $502 −$154 -31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $326 −$57 -18%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $495 +$405 +82%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 AND Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Wi Jun 23 $51 +$242 +473%
France vs. Iraq: France O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $487 −$146 -30%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $896 +$604 +67%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2,110 +$390 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $520 +$380 +73%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,943 +$257 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $795 +$205 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $926 +$574 +62%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $871 −$208 -24%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,123 +$269 +24%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,727 +$1,155 +42%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $800 −$400 -50%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,218 +$291 +24%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,010 +$526 +52%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $522 −$29 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $204 −$204 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $675 −$675 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 16 $1,005 −$1,005 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $580 −$580 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1,011 −$1,011 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,280 −$1,280 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 16 $1,245 −$1,245 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $1,544 −$1,544 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $296 −$296 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,134 −$1,134 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,280 −$1,235 -96%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $1,679 +$619 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,039 +$655 +63%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,319 +$589 +45%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,825 +$697 +38%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $359 −$308 -86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $710 +$280 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 39¢ $268 50m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 72¢ $508 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Brazil 72¢ $1,089 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 55¢ $669 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 27¢ $259 25h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 50¢ $497 27h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $983 43h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1,963 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 30¢ $206 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $383 46h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $589 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $457 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $7 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $25 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $11 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 74¢ $1,939 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 SELL Over 50¢ $734 2d
Panama vs. England: England O/U 1.5 BUY Over 81¢ $2,011 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $0 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 98¢ $3,304 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 70¢ $2,385 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 19¢ $195 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $508 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $348 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $502 4d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 AND Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3. BUY 11¢ $51 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 25¢ $269 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $89 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 29¢ $237 5d
Morocco vs. Haiti: Morocco O/U 2.5 AND Switzerland vs. Canada: Canada BUY 10¢ $51 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 436 history records