Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7f39…28da sports 337 markets active 0h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,423 (-6%) realized −$1,423 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate51%169W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$146est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$365
7 days−$762
14 days−$336
30 days−$591
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$1,654
other 21% +$164
crypto 1% −$97
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -13.9% -22.1% 45% 43% -23.1%
≤30d 194 -1.6% -10.9% 54% 46% -12.9%
≤90d 245 -4.7% -13.8% 51% 44% -12.7%
all 334 -5.5% -14.5% 51% 45% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 45% -14.8%
10% -22.7% 37% -22.9%
15% -30.1% 28% -30.4%
20% -37.0% 21% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$42 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,423
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses169 / 165
Est. fees paid−$146
Open positions0
Markets (closed)334 / 337
History coverage276d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 334 Trades
no open positions (121 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $753 −$105 -14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 Jun 17 $31 +$84 +272%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $332 +$180 +54%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $300 +$32 +11%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $274 −$243 -89%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 Jun 15 $192 −$122 -63%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $299 −$136 -46%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $106 −$73 -69%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $19 +$17 +90%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $300 +$68 +23%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $21 −$1 -5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $24 −$24 -100%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $40 −$16 -40%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 Jun 13 $26 −$26 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $37 +$40 +109%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $29 +$8 +26%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $61 +$22 +36%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $60 +$17 +29%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Dota 2: Game Master vs Grey Trac (BO3) - The International China Open Jun 12 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $21 +$63 +293%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $63 +$6 +10%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $302 −$300 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 12.5 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $250 +$105 +42%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $55 +$17 +31%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $14 −$13 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $29 +$10 +33%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $20 +$10 +48%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $27 −$8 -28%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $27 +$24 +88%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $20 +$7 +37%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $80 +$17 +21%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50 −$50 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $33 +$7 +20%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $51 +$40 +79%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $28 −$20 -70%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $190 −$104 -55%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $20 −$20 -98%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $47 +$12 +24%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $260 +$37 +14%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $51 −$38 -76%
Libema Open: Thijs Boogaard vs Yibing Wu Jun 10 $41 −$41 -99%
Iva Jovic vs. Alexandra Eala: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $41 −$16 -39%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $38 −$21 -53%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $224 +$76 +34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $511 0m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $452 20m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $137 29m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 84¢ $301 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $512 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $332 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $332 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 90¢ $300 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will France win on 2026-06-16 BUY 26¢ $31 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $31 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $71 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 SELL 22¢ $70 34h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $203 34h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-1 BUY 59¢ $192 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $163 36h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) SELL Spain 25¢ $33 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $299 44h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 78¢ $106 44h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $19 2d
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $19 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 81¢ $300 2d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $24 3d
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano SELL Jacob Fearnley 53¢ $24 3d
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano BUY Jacob Fearnley 87¢ $40 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 31¢ $10 3d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 11.5 BUY Under 60¢ $26 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $77 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $37 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $29 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 31¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 614 history records