Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f36…905f sports 546 markets active 1h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$891 (-7%) realized −$879 · open −$12
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%290W / 254L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day15.0pace
Fees−$164est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$181
7 days−$50
14 days−$82
30 days−$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$633
other 7% −$184
crypto 1% +$23
world 0% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +23.9% +12.1% 53% 52% -11.5%
≤30d 271 +0.8% -8.8% 49% 48% -14.8%
≤90d 544 +1.5% -8.1% 53% 51% -15.2%
all 544 +1.5% -8.1% 53% 51% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 51% -15.2%
10% -16.9% 48% -23.3%
15% -25.0% 36% -30.7%
20% -32.3% 22% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized−$879
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses290 / 254
Est. fees paid−$164
Open positions1
Markets (closed)544 / 546
History coverage70d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day15.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 544 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 40¢ 26¢ $34 $23 −$12 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 184 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $36 +$29 +83%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 17 $21 +$42 +197%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 17 $37 +$22 +60%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $36 +$34 +97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 −$20 -60%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $36 −$36 -99%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $45 +$45 +99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $33 +$37 +109%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $35 +$25 +73%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $35 +$19 +53%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 16 $121 −$7 -6%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $24 +$26 +105%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $15 +$10 +62%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $37 −$36 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 16 $19 +$1 +5%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $33 +$26 +78%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 15 $28 −$28 -98%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 15 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $49 −$49 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $44 −$44 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $121 −$120 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $40 −$39 -99%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $49 −$48 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $40 +$35 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $36 +$29 +79%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 14 $40 +$25 +62%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $42 −$41 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 14 $32 −$32 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $31 −$31 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 14 $36 +$29 +79%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $33 +$32 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $21 +$19 +91%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$51 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $32 +$43 +135%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $54 +$38 +71%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $53 +$47 +90%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $31 −$31 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $49 +$26 +52%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $33 −$32 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $8 +$12 +140%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $42 +$33 +79%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $41 +$37 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $31 +$59 +193%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 12 $24 +$25 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $35 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 33¢ $21 4h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 54¢ $36 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 19¢ $13 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 46¢ $33 7h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $37 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 56¢ $36 10h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 50¢ $36 10h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 11¢ $6 18h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $2 18h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $15 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 19h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $15 19h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $70 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $33 23h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies SELL Philadelphia Phillies 98¢ $54 24h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $3 25h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 57¢ $35 25h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 53¢ $35 25h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 63¢ $35 25h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees SELL New York Yankees 52¢ $114 26h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $21 32h
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY New York Yankees 54¢ $100 33h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros SELL Detroit Tigers 100¢ $50 44h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals SELL St. Louis Cardinals 100¢ $25 45h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 45¢ $37 46h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 49¢ $20 46h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds SELL Cincinnati Reds 99¢ $59 47h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 45¢ $19 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.79 · official $21.93 (match) · 1110 history records