Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:15:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7F 0x7f36…5fb3 other 162 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
Total PnL +$176 (+6%) realized +$178 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%49W / 112L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$274
14 days+$216
30 days+$245
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$216
other 30% −$105
world 3% +$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+16.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +28.9% +16.7% 100% 100% +16.7%
≤30d 10 -3.7% -12.8% 70% 70% +4.2%
≤90d 161 +28.9% +16.7% 30% 30% -4.1%
all 161 +28.9% +16.7% 30% 30% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.7% 30% -4.1%
10% +5.5% 30% -13.3%
15% -4.7% 29% -21.7%
20% -14.0% 27% -29.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +46% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$7 · ×2.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$178
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses49 / 112
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)161 / 162
History coverage71d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? No 77¢ 76¢ $374 $372 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $284 +$92 +32%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $229 +$59 +26%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $210 +$79 +38%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $221 +$44 +20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 09 $59 −$59 -100%
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-31? Jun 01 $89 +$35 +40%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 01 $198 −$198 -100%
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? Jun 01 $98 +$37 +38%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $222 +$156 +70%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Lisa Zaar vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro May 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Sporting CP vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw? May 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $2 +$9 +442%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-05-16? May 17 $2 +$6 +291%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev May 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? May 16 $191 −$191 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $161 +$113 +70%
Will Walsall FC win on 2026-05-02? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will FC St. Pauli 1910 win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stade de Reims win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Northampton Town FC win on 2026-05-02? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Konyaspor win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Antalyaspor win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Stade Brestois 29 win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-02? May 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Gaziantep FK win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will FC Nantes win on 2026-05-08? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-04? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will EC Vitória win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Atlas FC win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Rio Ave FC win on 2026-05-03? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CA Huracán win on 2026-05-09? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hellas Verona FC win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FK Zenit win on 2026-05-10? May 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $1 +$6 +550%
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $2 +$6 +388%
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $1 +$6 +414%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $84 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY No 77¢ $293 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY No 75¢ $284 13h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $229 41h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $210 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $221 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $59 14d
Will CD Mirandés win on 2026-05-31? BUY No 71¢ $89 17d
Will RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas end in a draw? BUY No 72¢ $98 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 58¢ $198 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $189 18d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $222 18d
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Lisa Zaar vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro BUY Lisa Zaar 24¢ $1 29d
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 47¢ $99 32d
Will Los Angeles Galaxy win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 32d
Will Botafogo FC win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 32d
Will Sporting CP vs. Gil Vicente FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 32d
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 32d
Will CF Estrela da Amadora win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $3 32d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Daniil Medvedev BUY Daniil Medvedev 8¢ $2 32d
Will FC Porto win on 2026-05-16? BUY No 27¢ $2 32d
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 32d
Will 1. FC Köln win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 32d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY No 68¢ $191 33d
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-14? BUY No 58¢ $161 34d
Will CA Osasuna vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 34d
Will Casa Pia AC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 37d
Will FC Arouca win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 37d
Will Moreirense FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 37d
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-11? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 37d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $371.72 · official $371.72 (match) · 335 history records