Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:39:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f2f…bb96 other 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-0%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate38%6W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$119per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$4
sports 27% −$18
crypto 15% $0
politics 10% $0
world 6% +$7
economics 5% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +6.8% -3.4% 100% 0% -3.4%
≤90d 4 +39.4% +26.1% 75% 25% +42.4%
all 16 +1.5% -8.1% 38% 6% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -9.9%
10% -16.9% 6% -18.5%
15% -24.9% 6% -26.4%
20% -32.3% 6% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +57% too few recent
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$24 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses6 / 10
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage129d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 92¢ 92¢ $47 $47 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Jun 11 $87 +$6 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 04 $81 +$7 +9%
Canadiens vs. Flyers Apr 15 $131 +$190 +144%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 01 $51 −$1 -3%
Flyers vs. Sharks Mar 22 $207 −$207 -100%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 18 $197 $0 -0%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? Mar 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 11 $10 $0 -5%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 08 $98 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Mar 08 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Mar 05 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 28 $11 −$2 -15%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 24 $197 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 20 $7 −$1 -12%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? Feb 18 $199 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 16 $197 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $47 1h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $93 13d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $87 30d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 92¢ $81 57d
Canadiens vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 41¢ $131 71d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $20 84d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 86d
Flyers vs. Sharks BUY Sharks 53¢ $207 95d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $197 98d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $197 100d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $197 101d
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $197 103d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $10 105d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 4¢ $30 105d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $31 106d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 106d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 99¢ $99 107d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee SELL Yes 98¢ $98 107d
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 98¢ $98 110d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee BUY Yes 99¢ $99 110d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $199 111d
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 99¢ $199 112d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL Yes 1¢ $9 115d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY Yes 1¢ $11 117d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $196 120d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $197 121d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m SELL Yes 1¢ $6 124d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 1¢ $7 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? SELL No 100¢ $199 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $199 127d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.74 · official $46.74 (match) · 45 history records