Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:58:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f2d…c83d sports 1092 markets active 2d ago coverage 400d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Covers last 400d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$519 (-1%) realized −$510 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate63%682W / 401L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$410now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$106
7 days−$90
14 days−$78
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$234
crypto 15% −$25
world 10% −$150
other 8% −$158
politics 3% +$56
tech 0% −$49
economics 0% +$2
finance 0% −$25
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +1.5% -8.1% 68% 52% -22.5%
≤30d 150 -1.6% -11.0% 75% 45% -9.4%
≤90d 518 -18.5% -26.3% 61% 32% -14.1%
all 1083 -6.4% -15.3% 63% 35% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.3% 35% -10.9%
10% -23.4% 26% -19.5%
15% -30.8% 19% -27.2%
20% -37.6% 12% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$8 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

400d coverage
Net worth$410
Realized−$510
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses682 / 401
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions9
Markets (closed)1083 / 1092
History coverage400d ⚠
Avg bet$35
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 1083 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will ThunderTalk Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 100¢ 100¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Will EDward Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? No 100¢ 100¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $50 $57 +$7 (+15%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 13¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-20%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 47¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 67¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-14%)
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 14¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $101 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $83 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $73 −$39 -53%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $7 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +65%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $110 +$11 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 -19%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $5 +$1 +15%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$3 +129%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +50%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $12 +$1 +8%
Will T1 qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +24%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $30 +$7 +24%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $15 +$2 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $4 +$2 +57%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 +$4 +62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $11 +$3 +31%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $6 +$2 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $11 +$1 +10%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $6 +$2 +40%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 +$2 +36%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $3 −$1 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $22 −$5 -24%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +42%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $7 +$4 +55%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +57%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 11 $7 +$4 +52%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -70%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $4 +$2 +52%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 10 $1 −$1 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Anyone's Legend win the LPL 2026 season? Jun 09 $50 +$2 +4%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +29%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $10 +$3 +34%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 83¢ $51 38h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 64¢ $30 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 44¢ $32 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 84¢ $10 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 97¢ $10 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 2¢ $0 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 98¢ $50 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 16¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 63¢ $2 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 37¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL G2 32¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 63¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $1 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 36¢ $1 40h
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 5¢ $2 40h
Will Lionel Messi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 89¢ $7 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL FUT Esports 1¢ $0 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 98¢ $100 40h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY FUT Esports 58¢ $1 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 99¢ $10 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 97¢ $121 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 76¢ $10 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 89¢ $100 43h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 60¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 82¢ $3 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta SELL BetBoom Team 18¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 33¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 40¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $1 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 58¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $410.31 · official $410.31 (match) · 3500 history records