Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T01:16:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f27…8776 sports 294 markets active 2h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$261 (+3%) realized +$192 · open +$69
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%142W / 142L
Drawdown86%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$2,159now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$27
7 days+$66
14 days+$84
30 days+$89
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% +$186
sports 21% +$36
politics 13% +$11
tech 12% +$21
world 9% −$10
finance 1% +$7
crypto 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +6.3% -3.9% 100% 0% -4.0%
≤30d 18 +0.7% -8.9% 94% 11% -5.2%
≤90d 36 -1.6% -11.0% 81% 25% -5.8%
all 284 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 36% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 36% -7.1%
10% -18.1% 29% -16.0%
15% -26.1% 27% -24.1%
20% -33.3% 23% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$9 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$2,159
Realized+$192
Unrealized+$69
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses142 / 142
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)284 / 294
History coverage261d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown86%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 284 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $492 $505 +$14 (+3%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? No 82¢ 90¢ $408 $452 +$44 (+11%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 91¢ 94¢ $300 $310 +$10 (+3%)
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $250 $258 +$8 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 86¢ 92¢ $200 $212 +$12 (+6%)
Trump out as President before 2027? No 86¢ 90¢ $201 $211 +$10 (+5%)
US military draft authorized in 2026? No 92¢ 93¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $75 $60 −$15 (-21%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 11¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $7 $0 −$7 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Jun 28 $30 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 28 $50 +$5 +10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 28 $175 +$16 +9%
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 28 $100 +$5 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Jun 24 $225 +$9 +4%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $50 +$2 +4%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? Jun 23 $451 +$28 +6%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $55 +$5 +10%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $50 +$3 +6%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $19 +$2 +12%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 08 $25 −$25 -99%
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30? Jun 08 $139 +$10 +7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 08 $287 +$15 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 08 $50 +$3 +6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 08 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? May 24 $130 +$2 +1%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 13 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 12 $100 +$1 +1%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 12 $1 +$1 +109%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights May 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $740 in May? May 11 $15 +$2 +12%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $20 +$4 +20%
Will Anthropic not IPO by June 30, 2026? May 04 $52 +$2 +4%
Anthropic $500B+ valuation in 2026? Apr 29 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $11 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Apr 24 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Apr 24 $1 +$2 +168%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $720 on April 27? Apr 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 12 $10 +$7 +71%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 07 $389 +$20 +5%
Will Anish Giri win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament? Apr 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-03-18? Mar 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Mar 20 $50 +$10 +19%
Spread: FC Barcelona (-1.5) Mar 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $10 −$9 -86%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 18 $9 −$2 -18%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 17 $25 $0 +0%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on March 16? Mar 17 $20 +$1 +4%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by March 31? Mar 16 $25 +$3 +11%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 15 $40 −$7 -17%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the Mar 15 $50 −$13 -26%
Bucks vs. Bulls Mar 15 $3 −$3 -100%
76ers vs. Cavaliers Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Pelicans vs. Jazz Mar 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $50 1h
Trump out as President before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $50 1h
Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 1h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $50 1h
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 1h
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $50 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 9h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 87¢ $26 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $191 10h
US military draft authorized in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 71¢ $28 3d
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 95¢ $100 4d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $234 4d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 96¢ $50 5d
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026? BUY No 88¢ $40 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 71¢ $50 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $75 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $200 5d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $430 5d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $55 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 100¢ $55 7d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $50 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $50 7d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $30 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 86¢ $50 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 100¢ $53 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 94¢ $50 10d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $52 10d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes $21 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,158.86 · official $2,158.86 (match) · 986 history records