Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:24:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f26…e5e8 sports 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$734 (-15%) realized −$725 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate5%2W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$110est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,857now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$272
7 days−$803
14 days−$869
30 days−$937
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$799
other 22% −$79
crypto 1% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-47.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -36.6% -42.7% 6% 6% -38.6%
≤30d 37 -41.8% -47.3% 5% 5% -41.8%
≤90d 37 -41.8% -47.3% 5% 5% -41.8%
all 37 -41.8% -47.3% 5% 5% -41.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.3% 5% -41.8%
10% -52.3% 5% -47.3%
15% -56.9% 3% -52.4%
20% -61.2% 3% -57.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -62% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$29 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$1,857
Realized−$725
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses2 / 35
Est. fees paid−$110
Open positions23
Markets (closed)37 / 60
History coverage19d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 23 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $121 $119 −$2 (-2%)
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $121 $119 −$2 (-2%)
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $121 $119 −$2 (-2%)
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $121 $119 −$2 (-2%)
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $121 $118 −$3 (-2%)
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $121 $113 −$8 (-7%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $104 $103 −$1 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 55¢ 55¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 30¢ $94 $95 +$2 (+2%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 44¢ 89¢ $40 $81 +$41 (+102%)
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-2%)
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $74 $73 −$1 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $74 $72 −$2 (-2%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $74 $69 −$5 (-6%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 22¢ $74 $69 −$5 (-6%)
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-2%)
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 39¢ 20¢ $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 26¢ $17 $16 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $333 −$29 -9%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $75 −$9 -12%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$21 -27%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$7 -10%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$7 -9%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$6 -8%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$7 -10%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$7 -9%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$11 -14%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$10 -13%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$9 -11%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 20 $73 −$14 -19%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$11 -14%
Will Scotland vs. Brazil end in a draw? Jun 20 $76 −$14 -18%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 20 $78 −$17 -22%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 20 $86 −$19 -22%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 20 $77 −$7 -10%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $149 −$68 -46%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 18 $76 −$74 -97%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 18 $78 −$74 -95%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $79 −$74 -94%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $76 −$71 -94%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $79 −$74 -94%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $79 −$74 -94%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $97 −$74 -77%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $18 +$47 +262%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$16 -62%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -23%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $134 +$35 +26%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$12 -12%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -94%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $26 −$25 -97%
Will Isack Hadjar win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $42 −$41 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $67 −$67 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $304 9m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 53m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $20 54m
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 53¢ $66 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $24 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $51 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $106 1h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 2h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $48 2h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 2h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $48 2h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $48 3h
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $48 3h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $48 3h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $48 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 3h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $76 3h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $55 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 19¢ $69 3h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $69 3h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $69 3h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 22¢ $69 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 20¢ $69 3h
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 10¢ $65 3h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $61 3h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $76 3h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $76 3h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $76 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 55¢ $101 3h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $75 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,856.55 · official $1,856.60 (match) · 134 history records