Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:20:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f24…ea6c other 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% +$2
other 24% +$2
politics 5% $0
sports 4% +$1
tech 1% $0
economics 1% $0
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.7% -8.9% 50% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 8 +0.5% -9.1% 38% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 13 +0.8% -8.8% 38% 0% -8.9%
all 31 -0.8% -10.3% 48% 3% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 3% -8.9%
10% -18.9% 3% -17.7%
15% -26.7% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.9% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.77 per $1 lost it wins $2.77
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage458d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 26 $38 $0 -1%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $95 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 21 $68 +$1 +1%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 21 $20 +$1 +4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $40 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 18 $75 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $34 +$1 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $37 +$1 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 23 $34 $0 -1%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 23 $12 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $9 $0 -2%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2025 World Series? May 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $210 in May? May 30 $1 −$1 -63%
Will Trump's approval rating be 47.0% or higher on May 30? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 23–30? May 28 $13 $0 +2%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? May 26 $2 +$1 +25%
Will Nikola Jokic win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? May 24 $15 $0 +3%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Apr 28 $15 +$1 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 21-28? Mar 26 $8 +$1 +10%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 25 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $37 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $7 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $30 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 47¢ $41 2d
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 47¢ $41 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $23 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $23 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $41 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $41 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 26¢ $21 5d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $8 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $17 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $39 6d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $39 6d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $8 7d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $32 7d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $40 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 7d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $12 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $36 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $9 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $10 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 99 history records