Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T18:22:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7F 0x7f24…b463 sports 140 markets active 0h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$539 (+4%) realized +$539 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%74W / 74L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$232est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$487
7 days−$838
14 days−$1,002
30 days−$479
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$586
crypto 3% −$5
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -65.8% -69.0% 12% 12% -39.7%
≤30d 84 -15.8% -23.8% 42% 40% -12.8%
≤90d 148 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 47% -7.1%
all 148 -3.1% -12.3% 50% 47% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 47% -7.1%
10% -20.7% 40% -16.0%
15% -28.4% 30% -24.1%
20% -35.4% 22% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late -20% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$55 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized+$539
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses74 / 74
Est. fees paid−$232
Open positions1
Markets (closed)148 / 140
History coverage104d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $19 $18 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $102 −$139 -136%
LoL: Oh My God vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 19 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 19 $24 −$24 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $644 −$55 -8%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $53 +$38 +72%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $383 +$361 +94%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $199 −$20 -10%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $197 −$196 -99%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $462 −$262 -57%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $275 −$273 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $8 +$75 +910%
LoL: Cloud9 vs LYON - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $75 −$74 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $13 +$9 +66%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $236 +$463 +196%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Team Liquid - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $101 −$99 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $145 −$140 -97%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $154 −$55 -36%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $133 −$132 -99%
LoL: Deep Cross Gaming vs GAM Esports (BO5) - LCP Playoffs Jun 06 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $177 +$66 +37%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $134 +$43 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 06 $105 +$29 +28%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $215 −$212 -99%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $58 −$57 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $90 −$40 -44%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 04 $72 +$103 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 04 $81 −$77 -95%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $46 −$45 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $17 −$17 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $90 −$84 -94%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 3 Winner Jun 01 $141 +$27 +19%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $35 −$34 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner Jun 01 $50 +$32 +64%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner May 31 $229 +$19 +8%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 1 Winner May 31 $191 +$139 +73%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $125 −$70 -56%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $247 +$35 +14%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $39 +$50 +129%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere - Game 3 Winner May 30 $20 +$5 +25%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 3 Winner May 30 $31 +$32 +106%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 30 $299 +$37 +12%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $5 −$2 -43%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 50¢ $109 7m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 66¢ $67 10m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $2 11m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $78 11m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 85¢ $169 20m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $3 20m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $104 20m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 72¢ $38 20m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 77¢ $227 35m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 51¢ $153 39m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 27¢ $55 40m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 80¢ $169 51m
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 29¢ $28 53m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 19¢ $19 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 29¢ $30 1h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner SELL 9z 91¢ $91 4d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 52¢ $53 4d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $2 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $73 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $157 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 93¢ $512 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 54¢ $17 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 54¢ $6 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 54¢ $162 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 54¢ $12 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 44¢ $97 5d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 40¢ $90 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 45¢ $154 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Top Esports 49¢ $26 5d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Top Esports 49¢ $199 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.50 · official $18.50 (match) · 598 history records