Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T20:12:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7F 0x7f1f…f2f8 sports 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$58 (+6%) realized +$25 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR65%break-even
Win rate81%21W / 5L
Drawdown82%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$52
other 19% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +12.3% +1.6% 81% 65% -5.4%
≤30d 26 +12.3% +1.6% 81% 65% -5.4%
≤90d 26 +12.3% +1.6% 81% 65% -5.4%
all 26 +12.3% +1.6% 81% 65% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 65% -5.4%
10% -8.1% 42% -14.5%
15% -17.0% 42% -22.7%
20% -25.1% 23% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$38 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$73
Realized+$25
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses21 / 5
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage4d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown82%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A MIBR Academy 55¢ 100¢ $40 $73 +$33 (+82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 26 $30 +$17 +55%
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 26 $50 −$50 -99%
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Jun 26 $98 +$15 +15%
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul Jun 26 $81 −$80 -99%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 25 $79 +$29 +36%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $49 +$22 +45%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 25 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $45 +$3 +7%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $45 +$6 +13%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $44 +$1 +2%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 24 $44 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 24 $21 +$18 +83%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 24 $41 +$16 +39%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $20 −$9 -43%
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon Jun 24 $25 +$13 +50%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li Jun 24 $28 +$16 +57%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $23 +$2 +10%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$3 +16%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $19 +$1 +7%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $9 +$9 +101%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner Jun 23 $18 +$2 +13%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $19 +$9 +46%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group Jun 22 $13 +$10 +75%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 2 Winner Jun 22 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$3 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 55¢ $41 1h
Valorant: Dplus vs DRX Academy (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season BUY DRX Academy 64¢ $30 11h
Counter-Strike: Entropy vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - European Pro League BUY Donstu Esports 75¢ $50 12h
Edmonton Elks vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers BUY Edmonton Elks 87¢ $98 18h
Counter-Strike: The Huns Esports vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - LG Ul BUY The Huns Esports 61¢ $81 19h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Sashi Esport 73¢ $79 23h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Sharks 68¢ $49 27h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner BUY ECHO 63¢ $51 27h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 93¢ $45 46h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 98¢ $44 47h
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Keyd 88¢ $45 47h
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs GamerLegion (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY GamerLegion 85¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY MIBR Academy 87¢ $44 2d
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN BUY Sharks 54¢ $21 2d
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group BUY AM Gaming 71¢ $41 2d
ITF Maanshan: Eva Marie Desvignes vs Jeong Moon BUY Eva Marie Desvignes 66¢ $25 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 91¢ $23 2d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 87¢ $20 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 86¢ $20 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 93¢ $19 2d
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winner BUY Sharks 88¢ $18 3d
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $9 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 68¢ $19 3d
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group BUY ReThink 56¢ $13 3d
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy - Map 2 Winner BUY OXEN 60¢ $5 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 4d
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs METANOIA WOLVES (BO3) - Gamers Club Li BUY MIBR Academy 63¢ $28 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.69 · official $72.69 (match) · 49 history records