Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:57:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7F 0x7f1d…fbe2 crypto 344 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (461 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$24,302 (+44%) realized +$24,294 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -61% what you keep after slip
Net edge-61%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate25%171W / 515L
Whale WR72%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day460.7pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$372now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$4,128
other 3% +$216
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (461 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-53.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 682 -49.4% -54.2% 25% 23% -24.7%
≤30d 686 -48.9% -53.8% 25% 23% -24.7%
≤90d 686 -48.9% -53.8% 25% 23% -24.7%
all 686 -48.9% -53.8% 25% 23% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover460.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.8% 23% -24.7%
10% ← realistic here -58.2% 21% -31.9%
15% -62.2% 16% -38.5%
20% -65.9% 10% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 72% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$58 · ×1.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$372
Realized+$24,294
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses171 / 515
Whale WR (big bets)72%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)686 / 344
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$161
Trades / day460.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 686 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain leading at halftime? Yes 73¢ 74¢ $365 $372 +$8 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $54 −$54 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $280 −$280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 15 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $372 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $131 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $46 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $2 1h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $368 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $115 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $159 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $372.50 · official $372.50 (match) · 3500 history records