Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7F 0x7f1c…55e4 weather 854 markets active 1h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,032 (+7%) realized +$10,032 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate85%723W / 130L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$166per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,135
7 days+$1,497
14 days+$1,877
30 days+$2,944
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$10,539
crypto 2% −$39
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +9.6% -0.8% 100% 20% +8.2%
≤30d 92 +8.6% -1.8% 100% 17% -0.1%
≤90d 372 +7.2% -3.0% 98% 22% -3.0%
all 853 +4.2% -5.7% 85% 47% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 47% -2.8%
10% -14.7% 32% -12.1%
15% -23.0% 16% -20.6%
20% -30.5% 7% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$37 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$10,032
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses723 / 130
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)853 / 854
History coverage134d
Avg bet$166
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 853 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? Jun 18 $1,219 +$1,027 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? Jun 16 $311 +$42 +14%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 16 $119 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? Jun 16 $73 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? Jun 16 $179 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Jun 16 $602 +$49 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? Jun 16 $337 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 15 $132 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 15 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? Jun 15 $604 +$93 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 14 $1,170 +$41 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $485 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 13 $415 +$22 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 13 $175 +$11 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju Jun 13 $515 +$48 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 13? Jun 13 $150 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 12 $109 +$5 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 12? Jun 12 $310 +$7 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 11? Jun 11 $605 +$118 +20%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $85 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $138 +$3 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 10 $470 +$28 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $392 +$43 +11%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 10 $86 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 09 $8 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 9? Jun 09 $150 +$4 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 9? Jun 09 $175 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 9? Jun 09 $603 +$60 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on Ju Jun 08 $20 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $20 +$19 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $605 +$128 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 8? Jun 08 $20 +$22 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 80-81°F on June 7? Jun 08 $232 +$8 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 84-85°F on June 6? Jun 07 $601 +$26 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 28°C on June 5? Jun 05 $54 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June Jun 04 $601 +$18 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 04 $518 +$12 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 3? Jun 04 $221 +$7 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 73°F or below on June 3? Jun 04 $605 +$132 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 30°C on June 3? Jun 03 $37 +$4 +12%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 2? Jun 02 $90 +$18 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on June Jun 02 $601 +$17 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 92°F or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $601 +$16 +3%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 02 $601 +$25 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be 92°F or higher on June 1? Jun 02 $430 +$13 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 1? Jun 01 $603 +$65 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on May 31? May 31 $604 +$89 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $209 +$6 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C or higher on May 31? May 31 $602 +$50 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 37¢ $619 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 17? BUY No 98¢ $600 1h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $352 34h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $123 35h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY No 97¢ $119 35h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 16? BUY No 87¢ $311 35h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $75 36h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $73 36h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $183 37h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $651 37h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $179 37h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY No 92¢ $602 38h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $345 40h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $337 40h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $137 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY No 97¢ $132 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? SELL No 100¢ $697 2d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 15? BUY No 86¢ $604 2d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $1,211 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $569 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $601 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? SELL No 100¢ $494 3d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 98¢ $485 3d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 100¢ $437 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $186 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $563 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 91¢ $515 4d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 94¢ $415 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1829 history records