Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T05:25:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
7F 0x7f18…d703 world 10 markets active 1h ago coverage 18d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$456 (-15%) realized −$456 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%4W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$309per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days−$1
30 days−$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 37% +$1
other 33% −$477
politics 15% −$2
sports 15% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 10 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 0% -22.8%
≤90d 10 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 0% -22.8%
all 10 -10.1% -18.7% 40% 0% -22.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 0% -22.8%
10% -26.5% 0% -30.2%
15% -33.6% 0% -36.9%
20% -40.1% 0% -43.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$97 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$456
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses4 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 10
History coverage18d
Avg bet$309
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? Jun 27 $429 +$8 +2%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 27 $434 −$2 -0%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 21 $50 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 21 $51 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $33 −$2 -6%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 15 $236 −$4 -2%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 10 $476 −$476 -100%
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? Jun 10 $478 −$2 -0%
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) Jun 09 $455 +$23 +5%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? Jun 09 $451 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $437 39m
Will there be 1-2 North Korea tests in June 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $429 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $432 2h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $434 2h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $26 5d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $24 5d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 5d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 5d
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? SELL Yes 5¢ $51 6d
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 6d
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? BUY Yes 5¢ $25 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $31 11d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $33 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 34¢ $158 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 33¢ $54 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $36 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 36¢ $72 11d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 37¢ $74 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $39 12d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 37¢ $35 12d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY No 94¢ $476 16d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $477 16d
Will Trump meet with Delcy Rodríguez by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $478 16d
Spread: DR Congo (-2.5) BUY Chile 95¢ $455 17d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $70 17d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $382 17d
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $451 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records