Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T07:10:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7F
0x7f18…ca04
world · 33 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$9 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$9 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$1
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses11 / 21
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage480d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$4
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 12 $37 −$2 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $161 +$1 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 +42%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $40 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -22%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $68 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $64 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $39 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $49 −$1 -2%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 31 $40 −$1 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 28 $88 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $3 +$2 +78%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 27 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $41 −$2 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $19 +$1 +7%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $179 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $25 −$2 -9%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 24 $90 +$14 +16%
Will Celta win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League? Apr 23 $229 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1240-1279 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $71 +$12 +17%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $229 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $36 +$1 +1%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 15 $228 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $147 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 14 $228 $0 +0%
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State Mar 03 $12 −$12 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 40% +$24
world 27% −$2
politics 10% +$1
sports 9% −$13
economics 9% $0
finance 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $1 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $37 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $37 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 79¢ $35 11h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 84¢ $37 16h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 44h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $1 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $17 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $39 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $2 4d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 5d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $38 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $21 7d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 95¢ $18 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $24 7d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 95¢ $15 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $43 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 51¢ $43 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $28 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $15 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $43 8d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 8d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 14% -10.0%
≤30d 19 +4.4% -5.5% 32% 11% -9.8%
≤90d 31 +3.5% -6.3% 35% 13% -8.8%
all 32 +0.3% -9.3% 34% 12% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 12% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 6% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 6% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $1.15 (match) · 129 history records