Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:24:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7F 0x7f16…b17c crypto 159 markets active 1h ago coverage 78d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$498 (-13%) realized −$468 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate54%85W / 73L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$182
14 days−$123
30 days−$123
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$407
crypto 27% −$55
other 15% −$109
weather 1% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +7.8% -2.4% 40% 40% -19.1%
≤30d 11 +11.3% +0.7% 45% 45% -15.6%
≤90d 158 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 47% -19.7%
all 158 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 47% -19.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 47% -19.7%
10% -23.6% 41% -27.4%
15% -30.9% 34% -34.4%
20% -37.7% 23% -40.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$22 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

78d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$468
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses85 / 73
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)158 / 159
History coverage78d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 158 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) Phoenix Mercury 70¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 37 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $90 −$88 -98%
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina Jun 12 $300 −$210 -70%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $159 +$138 +87%
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla Jun 12 $254 −$250 -98%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 12 $157 −$86 -55%
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis Jun 12 $102 +$369 +360%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $221 +$61 +27%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 11 $121 +$35 +29%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 11 $168 −$1 -0%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 210.5 Jun 11 $129 +$59 +46%
Will Reilac Shiga vs. Giravanz Kitakyūshū end in a draw? May 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. FC Dallas end in a draw? May 17 $24 −$22 -91%
Will Vålerenga Fotball vs. Sarpsborg 08 FF end in a draw? May 16 $152 −$127 -84%
Will Samsunspor win on 2026-05-16? May 16 $100 +$54 +54%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 13 $30 −$29 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $36 −$8 -22%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $31 −$20 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 10 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 09 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 09 $20 +$2 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 09 $20 +$3 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $5 +$13 +257%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $5 −$5 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 07 $5 −$2 -44%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 05 $13 +$21 +161%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 04 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 04 $10 −$9 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 01 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $41 −$17 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Apr 30 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Apr 30 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $27 −$23 -84%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Apr 30 $17 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 30 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Apr 30 $21 −$12 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Apr 30 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Apr 29 $15 +$4 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Apr 29 $10 +$2 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Las Vegas Aces (-6.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 70¢ $30 1h
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron BUY Marcos Giron 46¢ $90 5d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina SELL Zdenek Kolar 12¢ $90 5d
Bratislava: Zdenek Kolar vs Federico Cina BUY Zdenek Kolar 37¢ $300 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 99¢ $80 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 99¢ $76 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 99¢ $16 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 99¢ $109 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic SELL Marin Cilic 99¢ $16 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 53¢ $1 5d
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic BUY Marin Cilic 53¢ $158 5d
Cattolica: Dusan Lajovic vs Oriol Roca Batalla BUY Dusan Lajovic 42¢ $254 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva SELL Maxim Mrva 7¢ $70 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 15¢ $97 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 15¢ $7 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 15¢ $4 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 15¢ $28 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 15¢ $1 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 15¢ $1 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 15¢ $14 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 15¢ $1 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 15¢ $1 5d
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva BUY Maxim Mrva 33¢ $4 5d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL David Jorda Sanchis 99¢ $108 5d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL David Jorda Sanchis 99¢ $39 5d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL David Jorda Sanchis 99¢ $325 5d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis SELL David Jorda Sanchis 99¢ $0 5d
Lyon: Dali Blanch vs David Jorda Sanchis BUY David Jorda Sanchis 21¢ $102 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 45¢ $152 6d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 78¢ $221 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.21 · official $17.91 · 329 history records