Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:30:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7F 0x7f15…6a4c crypto 1118 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 10d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (340 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,818 (+37%) realized +$2,818 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate45%505W / 612L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day339.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$147
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (340 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 802 -1.9% -11.3% 45% 26% -11.4%
≤30d 1117 -1.7% -11.0% 45% 26% -11.3%
≤90d 1117 -1.7% -11.0% 45% 26% -11.3%
all 1117 -1.7% -11.0% 45% 26% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover339.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.0% 26% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.5% 12% -19.8%
15% -27.3% 6% -27.5%
20% -34.4% 3% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.97 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2,818
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses505 / 612
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1117 / 1118
History coverage10d ⚠
Avg bet$7
Trades / day339.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1117 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$3 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$1 -14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $1 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $2 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $5 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $4 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 46¢ $4 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $6 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 36¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records